Andalucia Masters: Steve Palmer's third-round analysis and final-round advice

Sky Sports Golf, 12.30pm Sunday

The story so far
Christiaan Bezuidenhout has dominated the Andalucia Masters through three rounds, the South African taking a five-shot lead into Sunday at the famous Valderrama.

Bezuidenhout, a European Tour maiden, started the week as an 80-1 chance, but he is no bigger than 8-15 with 18 holes to play in Sotogrande.

Sergio Garcia, chasing a fourth consecutive Andalucia Masters title, was a pre-tournament 13-2 due to his incredible Valderrama record. The local hero, though, has left himself an eight-shot final-round deficit to overcome.

The other major attraction this week – former world number two Jon Rahm – has a better chance of success. Rahm, jostling for favouritism with Garcia at the start of the week, is tied for second place and a best-priced 100-30 to triumph.

Leaderboard
-10 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
-5 Jon Rahm, Hideto Tanihara
-3 Thomas Detry, Nicolas Colsaerts
-2 Thomas Bjorn, Edoardo De la Riva, Victor Dubuisson, Steven Brown, Pablo Larrazabal, Matthieu Pavon, Gaganjeet Bhullar, Adri Arnaus, Sergio Garcia
-1 Daniel Gavins, Jorge Campillo, Bernd Ritthammer, David Horsey, Andy Sullivan, Mike Lorenzo-Vera, George Coetzee

Best prices
8-15 C Bezuidenhout, 100-30 J Rahm, 20 H Tanihara, 33 S Garcia, 40 T Detry, 60 N Colsaerts, 70 V Dubuisson, 100 P Larrazabal, 150 bar

Final-round advice
Christiaan Bezuidenhout has been playing extremely well, is suited to the test of accuracy provided by Valderrama, and could be fancied to get himself on the leaderboard in the Andalucia Masters.

The tough bit, though, was always going to be finishing the job, given he has never won on the European Tour and has never finished closer than two shots off the 72-hole lead. This stylish operator has shown a tendency to tighten up as the payout counter looms, and the 25-year-old seems far from home and hosed at Valderrama.

Punters who took the chance on Bezuidenhout at fancy prices have got themselves an excellent wager – he finished third in the BMW International Open last week and every department of his game has looked in good order – but those who missed the boat are not advised to make up for the error by weighing in at short prices.

Bezuidenhout may have dropped a hint of things to come with his wild drive at the 18th hole in round three – an ugly hook which missed so far left that he had a clear swing from the neighbouring fairway. That was the first sign that the leader is starting to think about the silverware – and the pressure could tell on Sunday.

The champion-elect could not have got a more intimidating final-round playing partner. Jon Rahm, the best player in the field, was suffering with illness at the start of the week, but he has got stronger and more dangerous, looking focused and confident, seeking a double in his homeland after winning the Spanish Open last year.

Rahm closed round three with back-to-back birdies and, given the volatility of Valderrama, the gap between him and Bezuidenhout in the betting looks too large.

This is a savage course where shots can be quickly frittered away – just ask Joost Luiten, who found the greenside bunker in two shots at the par-five 17th in round two and carded a triple-bogey eight. The five-shot advantage Bezuidenhout has over Rahm is less significant at Valderrama than it would be at most other tracks.

Gaganjeet Bhullar, Sergio Garcia and Jorge Campillo may hang around to take advantage from deeper on the board if both Bezuidenhout and Rahm both implode, but the most likely scenario is for Rahm to apply maximum pressure to the leader in round four.

If Bezuidenhout passes this test, repelling the Spanish bull with an army of Spaniards baying for blood from the gallery, the sweet-swinging South African should go on to bigger and better things. He is full of technical ability.

The suspicion is the leaderboard will have tightened up considerably with a few holes to go, though, and the greater assurance of Rahm, a proven champion on both sides of the Atlantic, will prove decisive.

Recommendation
J Rahm
3pts 100-30 Betfair, Power

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