Alfred Dunhill Championship: Steve Palmer's preview, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 10.30am Thursday

Best bets

Brandon Stone
4pts each-way 18-1 Sky Bet
Back this tip with Coral
Connor Syme
1pt each-way 100-1 Betfred, Coral
Back this tip with Coral

Erik van Rooyen withdrew from the Alfred Dunhill Championship on Monday, leaving Christiaan Bezuidenhout atop the market, and pre-tournament favouritism is a new experience for the 25-year-old South African.

Bezuidenhout became a European Tour champion with a hugely impressive six-shot success in the Andalucia Masters at the end of June, he was third in the BMW PGA at Wentworth in September and 12th last time out in the DP World Tour Championship.

Alfred Dunhill form figures of MC-56-18 are not encouraging for Bezuidenhout fans though – he opened and closed with a 75 last year – and the layout has traditionally lent itself to more powerful operators.

Those immediately behind Bezuidenhout in the betting are equally unappealing. Charl Schwartzel has an incredible Leopard Creek record and would be clear favourite in normal circumstances, but a wrist injury has kept him sidelined for seven months and rust is inevitable. Branden Grace has been playing so badly he could not even get a wildcard pick from Ernie Els for the Presidents Cup, while an out of sorts Eddie Pepperell made headlines for running out of balls at the Turkish Airlines Open last time out.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Brandon Stone 18-1

By far the most attractive wager for the Alfred Dunhill Championship is the man who destroyed the field by seven shots at Leopard Creek three years ago – Brandon Stone has returned to a happy hunting ground ready to show off his talent.

Stone fired rounds of 67, 66, 66 and 67 in a dominant display to become Dunhill champion, leaving Thomas Detry, Schwartzel, Grace, Dylan Frittelli, Van Rooyen, George Coetzee, Bezuidenhout, Pepperell and Matt Wallace well behind, and he can be confident of contending in a weaker line-up this time.

Stone closed with a 67 for 18th place on his Dunhill debut in 2015, ran riot the following year, then opened with rounds of 69, 70 and 69 when defending his title in the subsequent edition. That put him in third place going into Sunday, three shots behind, and the classy youngster looked set to retain his Leopard Creek crown when opening the final round with two birdies.

A triple-bogey at the ninth hole knocked the stuffing from Stone, though, two double-bogeys followed on the back-nine, and despite five Sunday birdies, he signed for a 76 to finish 15th. He has carded only two over-par rounds in 12 spins at Leopard Creek.

The fact Stone played so well last year aside from four horror holes – he took seven at the second in round two – shows that the course changes made in 2017 have not ended his love affair with Leopard Creek. He has spoken positively about the modifications and feels even more comfortable at the venue.

And the cheerful 26-year-old has left no stone unturned – pardon the pun – in his quest to regain the Dunhill title. Stone took advantage of his failure to qualify for the European Tour Final Series by jetting over early to South Africa – he had several practice rounds under his belt at Leopard Creek before most of the field had even checked in there – and he seems determined to make the most of this excellent opportunity.

Interviews during the French Open and the Portugal Masters last month highlighted how much he has been looking forward to teeing up at Leopard Creek again. Stone feels like his game and general well-being is peaking for this assignment, with a challenging 2019 almost over. The genial character explained how swing changes he attempted this year have finally bed in, while also admitting that emigrating to England probably had an unsettling effect and impacted on results.

Stone moved to London at the end of May, deciding to base himself closer to the main tournaments and reduce his flight times, and it has taken a few months to get his new residence sorted. With his swing and home life back in order, he is ready to rumble, and France and Portugal showcased how close he is to claiming silverware again.
Stone was eighth after three rounds of the French Open, six shots behind runaway leader Nicolas Colsaerts, and pushed too hard too early in tough Sunday conditions, going six over par through four holes, before covering the rest of the round in level par and finishing 26th.

The following week, three 66s meant a two-shot final-round lead for Stone in Portugal, and he opened Sunday by going three under par through five. A little wobble followed and Steven Brown produced the performance of his life to edge bewildered Brandon by a shot.

The runner-up effort was further evidence, though, that Stone is back in business and ready to win again. He has triumphed three times on the European Tour and his A-game is of immense quality – his maiden Sunshine Tour victory was a five-shot romp and his European successes have been by margins of two, seven and four. He closed with a 60 to win the Scottish Open last year.

Experienced caddie Mike Kerr is on the bag and the future is bright for Stone whatever happens in the Dunhill this week. There is a good chance he will end 2019 with a bang, though, and punters are advised to devote almost their entire staking plan to the stand-out option.

Next best bet

Connor Syme 100-1

The solid Scot bravely regained his European Tour card on the Challenge Tour last season, claiming the 14th of the 15 cards, thanks largely to victory in the Turkish Airlines Challenge in April. He closed his campaign with 17th spot in the Foshan Open and 15th in the Challenge Tour Grand Final.

Relief must be coursing through the veins of the promising 24-year-old and he could not have asked for a better venue to kick off his return to European Tour life. Syme performed well in South Africa as an amateur and finished runner-up in the 2017 African Amateur Championship at Leopard Creek.

Players to note

Garth Mulroy
The 41-year-old, Alfred Dunhill champion in 2011, quit full-time golf to get into the car-wash business as a back injury took his toll, but he won a Sunshine Tour event last year to show he could still cut the mustard and still retains plenty of talent. A tempting 500-1 chance.

George Coetzee
The porky Pretorian followed third place in the French Open with 14th spot in Portugal, then won a Sunshine Tour event by three shots, before playing poorly in the Final Series.

Dean Burmester
The powerhouse tied with Coetzee in the Portugal Masters last time out, but Burmester missed the Alfred Dunhill cut by six shots 12 months ago, failing to take a shine to the faster-running turf.

Calum Hill
The Scot won three times on the Challenge Tour last season and finished 48th in the Mayakoba Classic on the PGA Tour last time out. European Tour success seems likely.

Ross Fisher
The 39-year-old's last European Tour victory came in South Africa – the 2014 Tshwane Open. He was tenth in Turkey last time out and must be considered.

Zander Lombard
The South African youngster led the Nedbank Challenge for a long way before closing with a 77 to finish eighth. He tied for third place at Leopard Creek last year.

Leopard Creek course guide

Course Leopard Creek Country Club, Malelane, South Africa
Prize money €1.5m (€250,000 to the winner)
Length 7,249 yards Par 72 Field 156
Course records- 72 holes 264 Charl Schwartzel (2012) 18 holes 61 Thomas Aiken (2008)

Course winners taking part Ernie Els, Darren Fichardt (2001 SA Tour Championship), Charl Schwartzel (four times), Richard Sterne, Garth Mulroy, Branden Grace, Brandon Stone

When to bet By 4.20am Thursday morning

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 10.30am Thursday

Time difference South Africa is two hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - DP World Tour Championship 1 J Rahm (13-2), 2 T Fleetwood (16-1), 3 M Lorenzo-Vera (100-1), 4 R McIlroy (4-1), 5 D Willett (40-1), T6 T Lewis (80-1), T Pieters (66-1), S Garcia (50-1)

Course overview This Gary Player designed layout opened in 1996 and hosted the Tour Championship on the South African circuit from 2001 to 2004. The more prestigious Alfred Dunhill Championship moved to Leopard Creek in 2005 and remained at the venue until the '2017' edition in December, 2016. There was no Alfred Dunhill in 2017 due to the course undergoing extensive improvements. The par-three 12th hole was completely redesigned, many of the fairway bunkers were repositioned, and the Kikuyu grass fairways were replaced with indigenous cynodon, so there was more run on the ball. The course is located on the southern edge of South Africa's Kruger National Park, with wild animals (lions, hippos, crocodiles, giraffes and antelope) usually in close attendance. Two long par-fours approaching the turn (the eighth and ninth) provide the greatest challenge. Two of the four par-fives (the 13th and 18th) are well in range in two shots, although a lake surrounds the 18th green and many stars (notably Ernie Els with his disastrous triple-bogey eight in 2007) have seen their title hopes find a watery grave there. The other two par-fives (the second and 15th) are 573 and 580 yards respectively. The 311-yard par-four sixth is tempting to big-hitters.

Story of last year David Lipsky led by six shots at one stage in round four, but wobbled on his way to the hut, clinging on for a two-shot success, his second European Tour victory

Weather forecast Sunny, calm and extremely hot for the first three days, before a cooler, breezier Sunday

Type of player suited to the challenge Charl Schwartzel, Ernie Els, Alvaro Quiros, Pablo Martin, Garth Mulroy, Branden Grace and Brandon Stone have all won on this track employing a power-packed approach, so it seems to lend itself to big hitting

Key attribute Power

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