3M Open: Steve Palmer's betting preview, lowdown & TV details

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 12.45pm Thursday

Brooks Koepka has finished 50th and 57th in regulation US Tour events either side of his runner-up finish in the US Open, and the world number one's reputation as a Majors specialist continues to be bolstered.

Koepka seems to follow heroics in Majors with humdrum performances in the bread-and-butter tournaments, and the 8-1 favourite for the inaugural 3M Open is difficult to trust. The four-time Major champ headlines the field as the US Tour makes the short trip from Michigan to Minnesota. This is the first regulation event in Minnesota in half a century, but the 2002 and 2009 US PGAs were staged at nearby Hazeltine, as well as the 2016 Ryder Cup in which Koepka scored three points from four matches.

Jason Day and Hideki Matsuyama, both in decent form, are each available at 11-1, just behind Koepka in the 3M Open betting. The top of the market is unattractive for a new event on an easy course where most of the field will be making birdies.

Palmer's top tip
Wyndham Clark 150-1

An improving outsider in the shape of Nate Lashley landed a maiden US Tour title in the Rocket Mortgage Classic last Sunday and this week could be the turn of another American who appears to have settled on the circuit.

Wyndham Clark, like Lashley, cut his teeth on the Web.com Tour, which was last week renamed the Korn Ferry Tour, graduating after posting four top-fives in his first season, and Clark did not take long to make an impression as a rookie in the higher grade. A tie for 18th in the Desert Classic in January was followed by tenth spot in Puerto Rico and seventh in the Honda Classic.

A fallow period after the Honda saw progress up the world rankings stall, but the 25-year-old has clicked back into gear, following a missed cut by a shot on unsuitable terrain in the Canadian Open with 15th place in the Travelers Championship and 17th in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. A breakthrough may be beckoning.

Clark's last ten competitive rounds have been par or better, a 23-under-par stretch, and he is bursting with potential, so it was a shock to find three-figure quotes for such an average heat as the 3M Open. Clark is blessed with immense power and a superb putting stroke, so has the ability to destroy the easy TPC Twin Cities venue.

The driveable par-fours are well within range for this powerhouse. Anyone consistently missing putts will be left behind this week and Clark has shown he can roll his rock as purely as the best of them.

Next best
Adam Hadwin 55-1

Minnesota is just over the Canadian border and Moose Jaw man Adam Hadwin is likely to receive more support than usual. Enthusiastic galleries inspired Hadwin to sixth spot in the Canadian Open a month ago and he can contend again in the 3M Open.

Hadwin finished a creditable 29th in the US PGA in the middle of May and punters are advised to ignore his missed cut by a couple of shots in the Travelers Championship last time out. Previous Travelers form figures of MC-MC-57-42 indicated that TPC River Highlands was not his favourite track and his mood dipped sharply after he missed a one-inch bogey putt at his fifth hole of the second round.

Hadwin will probably never make the same mistake again – his casual waft of the putter was costly – and he played his final three holes in two under par once finally seeming to get over his Travelers whiff. His game is in good order and TPC Twin Cities should suit. The 2017 Valspar champion is a strong putter who can reach the super-low winning score required this week – he once carded a 59 in the CareerBuilder Challenge – and one of his two Web.com Tour wins came in the Midwest.

Other selections
Brian Harman 80-1
Peter Uihlein 200-1
Denny McCarthy 175-1

Two of the best performances in Brian Harman's career came in the Midwest – his 22-under-par 2014 John Deere Classic total in Illinois for a maiden US Tour title and his share of second place behind Koepka in the 2017 US Open in Wisconsin. The little left-hander, who has always been a fine putter, has returned to the region this week with decent credentials.

A pair of two-under-par 70s meant missing the cut on the mark in Detroit last week but prior to that he closed with three 66s for eighth spot in the Travelers and appeared to have finally dialled in his irons again after a quiet spell.

Complete a team of capable putters with Denny McCarthy and Peter Uihlein. McCarthy is the No. 1 ranked putter on the US Tour this year and his flat-stick assurance is the main reason why he reached 23 under par to win the 2018 Web.com Tour Championship by four shots in September.

Since then, McCarthy has finished seventh in the Sanderson Farms, 15th in the Shriners Open, and ninth in the Valspar, and four sub-70 rounds for 21st spot in the Rocket Mortgage on Sunday have set the 26-year-old up nicely for a birdie-fest in Minnesota.

Uihlein, one of the biggest underachievers on the circuit given how good he was as an amateur, won a Web.com Tour event in the Midwest in 2017. Two bright efforts in Texas in May were greatly encouraging – fifth spot in the Byron Nelson and 13th at Colonial – and a missed cut on the mark in Detroit last week, which came largely because of an ugly seven at his fourth hole, hints he is not far away again. Uihlein made four birdies in both his Rocket rounds and he carries the tools to make mincemeat of TPC Twin Cities.

Others to note
Sepp Straka
The Austrian bomber finished 11th in the Rocket Mortgage, is putting well and becoming increasingly confident on the US Tour.

Cameron Champ
The runaway Sanderson Farms victor strongly hinted that he was over his back problems with a barnstorming start to the Rocket Mortgage Classic, but he faded to 46th spot over the weekend.

Viktor Hovland
The Norwegian youngster continues to impress in his opening skirmishes as a professional and this is arguably the best opportunity to win he has had so far.

Sungjae Im
The classy Korean will enjoy tackling a track which hardly anyone in the field knows well and the 3M represents another good chance for a breakthrough success.

Joaquin Niemann
The 20-year-old Chilean has fully settled into life on the US Tour and appears to be getting closer to a maiden triumph. It could come on Sunday.

Doc Redman
The Monday qualifier took runner-up honours in Detroit last week and gained a 3M spot in the process. Another bold challenge can be expected.

Staking plan
W Clark
1.5pts each-way 150-1 Betfred
A Hadwin
1.5pts each-way 55-1 bet365, Ladbrokes
B Harman
1pt each-way 80-1 Betfair, Power
P Uihlein
0.5pt each-way 200-1 Coral
D McCarthy
0.5pt each-way 175-1 bet365

The lowdown

Course TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota
Prize money $6.4m ($1.152m to the winner)
Length 7,468 yards
Par 71
Field 156

When to bet By 12.45pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports from 12.45pm Thursday

Time difference Minnesota is six hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Rocket Mortgage Classic 1 N Lashley (100-1), 2 D Redman (300-1), T3 R Sabbatini (66-1), W Roach (500-1), T5 B Snedeker (33-1), J Niemann (50-1), T Potter (500-1), B Stuard (150-1), C Tringale (150-1), P Reed (40-1)

Course overview TPC Twin Cities, just north of Minneapolis, opened in 2000 and has hosted events on the Champions Tour since 2001. It was recently upgraded to prepare it for its US Tour debut this week. The Arnold Palmer design, for which Tom Lehman acted as a consultant, features mature oak and spruce trees lining the fairways. It is a suburban development, framed by houses. The roundbellies have made mincemeat of it, with scores of 60 recorded by both Paul Goydos and Kenny Perry. David Frost was 22 under par for three rounds in 2010. Water is in play on half the holes, while the greens are bentgrass, large and undulating. There are three par-fives – the sixth, 12th and 18th – which are all just under 600 yards apiece. Three of the par-fours – the seventh, tenth and 16th – are driveable for big-hitters when the forward tees are used

Weather forecast A mixture of sunshine and clouds, with high humidity at the start of the competition and a threat of thunderstorms. Light to moderate breezes throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge The seniors have found this course a doddle on the Champions Tour and for the second week running the US Tour stars face a relatively straightforward layout in the Midwest. The greenkeepers have spent a year trying to toughen up the track, but a benign forecast means the competitors should still make merry and a hot putter seems essential

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