Spain v Germany predictions: Heavyweight Group E clash could be a cracker

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Spain v Germany in World Cup Group E on Sunday.

Where to watch

BBC One, 7pm Sunday

Best bet

Over 3.5 goals
2pts 9-5 Betfair

Germany's defeat to Japan has cranked up the pressure on Die Mannschaft but they had 26 attempts at goal in their opening game and can contribute to an entertaining contest against Spain, who thumped Costa Rica 7-0.

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Match preview

Spain versus Germany is probably the most glamorous fixture of the World Cup group stage, pitting the 2010 winners against the champions from 2014, and the Group E clash is unlikely to disappoint.

The pre-tournament assumption was that the result of this game would determine which of the European heavyweights qualified as group winners but Germany's 2-1 defeat to Japan has ripped up that narrative.

A win for the Blue Samurai against Costa Rica, who were thumped 7-0 by Spain in their opening game, would leave Die Mannschaft on the brink of a group-stage exit for the second World Cup running and it will be fascinating to see how they respond to the pressure.

Germany certainly can't take much confidence from their most recent meeting with Spain, who thrashed them 6-0 in the Nations League in November 2020.

Ferran Torres, who scored a hat-trick that day, bagged a brace against Costa Rica and he and his fellow forwards should be looking forward to their clash with an unconvincing German defence.

Germany's three group fixtures at Euro 2020 under Joachim Low produced a 1-0 defeat to France, a 4-2 win over Portugal and a 2-2 draw with Hungary, who led twice, and Low's successor Hansi Flick has struggled to improve them at the back.

Their last competitive clean sheet came in November 2021 in a 9-0 World Cup qualifying win over Liechtenstein and this season's Nations League results included a 5-2 win over European champions Italy and a 3-3 draw with England.

While Flick's side bring a generous helping of chaos to the table, Spain dictate the tempo of games, controlling possession and passing their opponents into submission.

La Roja's opening game against an admittedly weak Costa Rica side was a masterclass as they had 82 per cent of the ball, had 17 shots to their opponents' none, and scored seven goals, the pick of them a deft volley from 18-year-old Barcelona midfielder Gavi.

Spain won their final group match at the Euros 5-0 against Slovakia but their other five games at the tournament were all level after 90 minutes and they lost on penalties in the semi-final against Italy despite having 70 per cent of possession.

Manchester City midfielder Rodri is expected to continue at centre-back and Germany, who racked up 26 shots, nine of them on target, against Japan, have the attacking personnel to unsettle Spain.

Given the clash of styles, Spain's morale-boosting rout of Los Ticos, Germany's gung-ho approach and the fact that a draw may not do them any good, backing over 3.5 goals could be the best play.

Key stat

Germany have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last eight competitive internationals.

Team news

Spain
Luis Enrique could stick with the same 11 who started the rout of Costa Rica with Rodri continuing at centre-back.

Germany
Hansi Flick is unlikely to make sweeping changes despite the loss to Japan and Bayern Munich forward Leroy Sane (knee) remains a doubt.

Probable teams

Spain (4-3-3) Simon; Azpilicueta, Rodri, Laporte, Alba; Gavi, Busquets, Pedri; Torres, Asensio, Olmo

Germany (4-2-3-1) Neuer; Sule, Rudiger, Schlotterbeck, Raum; Kimmich, Gundogan; Gnabry, Muller, Musiala; Havertz

Inside info

Spain

Top scorer in probable team Ferran Torres
Star player Pedri
Penalty taker Ferran Torres
Assist ace Jordi Alba
Set-piece aerial threat Aymeric Laporte
Card magnet Sergio Busquets

Germany

Top scorer in probable team Thomas Muller
Star player Manuel Neuer
Penalty taker Ilkay Gundogan
Assist ace Serge Gnabry
Set-piece aerial threat Antonio Rudiger
Card magnet Nico Schlotterbeck

Spain v Germany Bet Builder

Over 2.5 goals
Spain put six goals past Germany the last time they met and Die Mannschaft's recent games have been lively
Over 22.5 shots
The pair had 43 shots between them against the group underdogs on matchday one and the Germans have to take the initiative
Dani Olmo to score at any time
The RB Leipzig forward had four shots in Spain's first game, scoring his fifth goal in 26 caps

Price guide 13-2 with bet365