Qatar v Ecuador predictions: History to be made with hosts heading for defeat

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Qatar v Ecuador in World Cup Group A on Sunday.

Where to watch

BBC One, 4pm Sunday

Best bet

Ecuador
1pt 29-20 Coral, Ladbrokes

Twenty-one teams have tried and failed to defeat a host nation in their opening World Cup game but Ecuador impressed in South American qualifying and they look like a more talented and battle-hardened side than Qatar, who appear to have gone backwards since winning the 2019 Asian Cup.

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Match preview

No World Cup hosts have lost their opening match but history could be made at the Al Bayt Stadium in Al Khor where Ecuador can make a winning start in their Group A contest against Qatar.

Qatar will be the 80th nation to take part at a World Cup and, like all of the host nations preceding them, they will be desperate to make a positive first impression.

However, Qatar sit in 52nd place in the Fifa rankings, the third-lowest of the 32 participants, and their squad, made up entirely of players from their own domestic league, could soon find themselves out of their depth.

Spanish head coach Felix Sanchez has been in the Qatari dugout since July 2017 and made significant early progress by steering them to Asian Cup glory in February 2019.

Spurred on by the exploits of nine-goal tournament top-scorer Almoez Ali, the Qataris won all seven matches, including eye-catching successes over South Korea and Japan in the quarter-final and final.

However, instead of kicking on from that triumph, the Qataris regressed.

They participated at the 2019 Copa America but took just one point from three games.

And the final stages of their build-up to the World Cup included September friendly losses to Croatia Under-23s and Canada.

More recently Sanchez's side have registered victories over Guatemala, Honduras, Panama and Albania, but none of those fixtures are likely to have adequately prepared them for the task they face against Ecuador.

All South American teams have to come through a tough World Cup qualifying process and, having forged a path to Qatar, Ecuador will expect to make an impact.

Ecuador's 2022 schedule has featured a series of low-scoring friendlies, including goalless draws against Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Japan and Iraq.

But anyone expecting a cautious approach from Gustavo Alfaro's side could be forced to reassess after the opening whistle in Al Khor.

Ecuador were the joint-second highest scorers in South American qualifying with 27 goals - the same as Argentina - and their veteran leading scorer, Fenerbahce's Enner Valencia, sits first in the Turkish top-flight scoring charts with 13 goals.

The Ecuador squad features four domestic-based players and others sprinkled across competitive leagues in South America, North America and Europe, including Brighton trio Jeremy Sarmiento, Pervis Estupinan and Moises Caicedo.

It looks like a group with plenty of depth and one which should fancy their chances of reaching the round of 16.

Key stat

Qatar have failed to win any of their last five matches against South American opposition.

Team news

Qatar
Ahmed Alaaeldin is a doubt after suffering an unspecified injury in the warm up match against Albania but he was not expected the start the opening game.

Ecuador
Carlos Gruezo has returned to training and should start. Jeremy Sarmiento is a doubt and Robert Arboleda is available.

Probable teams

Qatar (5-2-3) M Barsham; Ro-Ro, B Al-Rawi, B Khoukhi, A Hassan, H Ahmed; K Boudiaf, A Hatem; H Al Haydos, A Ali, A Afif.

Ecuador (4-1-4-1) A Dominguez; A Preciado, X Arreaga, P Hincapie, P Estupinan; C Gruezo; A Mena, A Franco, M Caicedo, R Ibarra; E Valencia.

Inside info

Qatar

Top scorer in probable team Almoez Ali
Star player Akram Afif
Penalty taker Hassan Al-Haydos
Assist ace Akram Afif
Set-piece aerial threat Abdelkarim Hassan
Card magnet Abdelkarim Hassan

Ecuador

Top scorer in probable team Enner Valencia
Star player Enner Valencia
Penalty taker Enner Valencia
Assist ace Moises Caicedo
Set-piece aerial threat Enner Valencia
Card magnet Moises Caicedo

Qatar v Ecuador Bet Builder

Ecuador to win Ecuador have won at least one match at each of the three World Cups they have contested and they can succeed against Qatar.
Enner Valencia to score anytime The Fenerbahce man has scored in four of his last five club appearances and is Ecuador's all-time top scorer with 35 goals.
Over 1.5 goals World Cup openers can be tight affairs but both teams will feel that they need to win and that could increase the entertainment factor.

Price guide 5-1