England v Iran predictions: Three Lions can edge their way to nervy opening win

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for England v Iran in World Cup Group B on Monday.

Where to watch

BBC One, 1pm Monday

Best bet

England to win 1-0
1pt 4-1 bet365, Betfred

Veteran Iran coach Carlos Queiroz knows how to set up a team to frustrate opponents and England, who lacked attacking fluency in this year's Nations League campaign, may have to work hard to take maximum points in their opener.

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Match preview

Bryan Robson scored after just 27 seconds of England's opening game of the 1982 World Cup against France but the Three Lions have been slowly away at subsequent finals and that trend may well continue against Group B outsiders Iran.

England lost 1-0 to Portugal in the first match of the 1986 tournament and drew 1-1 with Ireland at Italia 90 while their first four World Cup campaigns in the 21st century started with a 1-1 draw against Sweden, a 1-0 win over Paraguay, a 1-1 draw with the USA, and a 2-1 loss to Italy.

Four years ago in Russia, Gareth Southgate's men needed an injury-time winner from Harry Kane to see off Tunisia 2-1 so Three Lions fans should prepare themselves for a more tense contest against Iran than the betting suggests.

England are hot favourites to win Group B, with Wales and the USA expected to battle it out for second spot, but their stock has fallen since last year's penalty-shootout defeat to Italy in the final of Euro 2020.

Southgate's side coasted through World Cup qualifying before a dismal 2022-23 Nations League campaign in which they failed to win any of their six matches against Hungary, Germany and Italy and didn't even manage a goal from open play until the 3-3 draw with Die Mannschaft on matchday six.

Those displays should encourage Iran's experienced coach Carlos Queiroz, whose teams are renowned for their defensive strength and spoiling tactics.

Queiroz coached Iran between 2011 and 2019, earning four points from a tough 2018 World Cup group featuring Spain, Portugal and Morocco, and he started 2022 by leading an attritional Egypt side to the final of the Africa Cup of Nations.

Three of the Pharaohs' four knockout games went to penalties after goalless draws in 120 minutes and England can expect a similar approach from Iran, particularly as star striker Sardar Azmoun is struggling with a calf problem.

Team Melli still have prolific Porto forward Mehdi Taremi to lead the line but England conceded just two goals in seven games at Euro 2020 and their defence should stand firm despite concerns over Harry Maguire's poor form.

Southgate, like Queiroz, is a pragmatic coach who steered England through the group stage at the Euros with 1-0 wins over Croatia and the Czech Republic, either side of a 0-0 draw against Scotland, and the 1-0 correct score could be the best bet at the Khalifa International Stadium.

Key stat

England kept clean sheets in their first five matches at last year's European Championship finals.

Team news

England
Kyle Walker is still recovering from a groin injury and will not feature in the opening game. James Maddison is a doubt.

Iran
Bayer Leverkusen striker Sardar Azmoun (calf) is unlikely to be fit enough to start.

Probable teams

England (3-4-3) Pickford; Stones, Dier, Maguire; Trippier, Bellingham, Rice, Shaw; Saka, Kane, Sterling

Iran (4-5-1) Beiranvand; Moharrami, Pouraliganji, M Hosseini, Mohammedi; Jahanbakhsh, Nourollahi, Ezatolahi, Hajsafi, Amiri; Taremi

Inside info

England

Top scorer in probable team Harry Kane
Star player Harry Kane
Penalty taker Harry Kane
Assist ace Raheem Sterling
Set-piece aerial threat Harry Maguire
Card magnet Luke Shaw

Iran

Top scorer in probable team Mehdi Taremi
Star player Mehdi Taremi
Penalty taker Mehdi Taremi
Assist ace Mehdi Taremi
Set-piece aerial threat Saeid Ezatolahi
Card magnet Sadegh Moharrami

England v Iran Bet Builder

Under 2.5 goals
England's three group games at Euro 2020 produced just two goals and it could be a similar story against a dogged Iran side

Jude Bellingham to have over 0.5 shots on target
With Iran expected to defend in numbers, Bellingham's bursts from midfield could be useful and he has been in good goalscoring form for Borussia Dortmund

Draw-England double result
Iran have not conceded a first-half goal in three games since Carlos Queiroz returned and they can frustrate the Three Lions early on

Price guide 17-2 with bet365