Ecuador v Senegal predictions: La Tri can reach knockout stages on a high

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Ecuador v Senegal in World Cup Group A on Tuesday.

Where to watch

ITV4, 3pm Tuesday

Best bet

Ecuador
1pt 11-8 Hills

Ecuador need only a point to qualify for the last 16 but La Tri can claim all three against Senegal, who were beaten 2-0 by a Netherlands side who were largely dominated by the South Americans last time out. The Lions of Teranga also made hard work of finishing off hosts Qatar last time out.

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Match preview

A draw will be enough to see Ecuador safely through to the World Cup knockout stages, but they can give themselves a chance of claiming top spot in Group A by claiming all three against Senegal.

The Netherlands are top heading into the final round of fixtures and, given the Dutch are up against also-ran hosts Qatar, La Tri may already be resigned to the fact that second place is the best they can hope for.

But Ecuador are also in the precarious position of knowing that defeat to Senegal would see them usurped by the Lions of Teranga and almost certainly dumped out of the competition.

It would therefore be a risky ploy to play for the draw so punters can expect them to go for victory - and all recent evidence suggests that they can do just that.

Ecuador were comfortable 2-0 winners over Qatar on the World Cup's opening night and they would have been bitterly disappointed not to have earned more than a point from their meeting with the Netherlands.

Gustavo Alfaro’s side found themselves 1-0 down to Codey Gakpo’s fine strike inside just six minutes, but that was to be the only shot on target for the Dutch.

Ecuador were the dominant force thereafter - they won the shot count 15-2 - and on another day they could have ran out convincing winners.

Former Everton and West Ham man Enner Valencia has been Ecuador's talisman in Qatar, netting all three of their goals, so La Tri supporters will have been fearing the worst when he was stretchered off late in the second half against the Dutch.

However, manager Alfaro is hopeful that his influential captain will play at least some part in Tuesday's game.

Valencia’s involvement would be a huge boost but Ecuador are by no means a one-man team and it is their energy and physicality which makes them such a threat.

The South Americans are built on strong defensive foundations and go into this contest having lost just one of their last 17 internationals, a run which includes World Cup qualifying draws with Brazil and Argentina.

The goal they conceded to the Netherlands was the first time they have been breached in seven matches and they have been far more convincing than Senegal have in their opening two assignments.

The Lions of Teranga slumped to a 2-0 defeat against an off-colour Netherlands and even in their 3-1 win over Qatar they gave the hosts hope when they should have put the game out of reach.

Friday's 3-1 win emphasised how much they miss injured talisman Sadio Mane and forward trio Famara Diedhiou, Ismaila Sarr and Boulaye Dia won't have been giving Ecuador as many sleepless nights as a fully-fit Mane would.

The suspension of midfielder Jhegson Mendez is a potential blow for Ecuador, but Augsburg’s Carlos Gruezo is an able deputy and alongside Brighton boy Moises Caicedo they should also win the midfield battle.

Key stat

Ecuador are unbeaten in nine matches.

Team news

Ecuador
Manager Gustavo Alfaro is hopeful star man Enner Valencia can play some part. Jhegson Mendez is suspended and is expected to be replaced in midfield by Carlos Gruezo.

Senegal
Senegal have no fresh injury concerns but Cheikhou Kouyate is again doubtful.

Probable teams

Ecuador (3-4-3) Galindez; Porozo Vernaza, Torres, Hincapie; Preciado, Gruezo, Caicedo, Estupinan; Plata, Valencia, Estrada.

Senegal (4-4-2) E Mendy; Sabaly, Koulibaly, Diallo, Cisse; Sarr, Mendy, I Gueye, Diatta; Dia, Diedhiou.

Inside info

Ecuador

Top scorer in probable team Enner Valencia
Star player Enner Valencia
Penalty taker Enner Valencia
Assist ace Moises Caicedo
Set-piece aerial threat Piero Hincapie
Card magnet Moises Caicedo

Senegal

Top scorer in probable team Ismaila Sarr
Star player Kalidou Koulibaly
Penalty taker Ismaila Sarr
Assist ace Ismaila Sarr
Set-piece aerial threat Kalidou Koulibaly
Card magnet Nampalys Mendy

Ecuador v Senegal Bet Builder

Ecuador to win

Ecuador have lost only one of their last 17 matches and have looked better than Senegal in the opening two rounds of group games.

Under 3.5 goals

Ecuador's last nine games have featured two goals or fewer so don't expect this one to be a classic.

Moises Caicedo to be shown a card

The Brighton man has picked up six yellows in his last nine games for club and country and was fortunate to escape a booking against the Netherlands last time out.

Price guide 16-1

Match information

Stadium Khalifa International Stadium, Al Rayyan
Fifa rankings Ecuador 44, Senegal 18
Weather Mostly cloudy, 26C

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