What happens in the English top division when title challengers go head to head?

Manchester City lead Liverpool in the Premier League by one point with eight games to go – and in the first of those they will play each other. Anything could happen.

I looked back over more than 30 top-flight seasons for other occasions when teams closely contesting the title met in March, April or May. I counted 16.

What did I conclude? If two teams have a similar number of points after a large number of games they probably have broadly similar ability. What happens next – when they meet and afterwards – will determine who become champions. Who will hit their best form? Who will get the breaks?

The only thing I can say with confidence is that what happens in the remaining few games might not correspond with what happened in the most recent few games. Sometimes it does, sometimes it does not.

Consider just five of those top-of-the-table games played towards the end of the season.

April 27, 2014: Liverpool 0 Chelsea 2

Liverpool led Chelsea by five points with three games to play. Manchester City were a point behind Chelsea with a game in hand. Liverpool had won their last 11 Premier League games. Chelsea were between the first and second legs of a Champions League semi-final and manager Jose Mourinho rested most of his first-choice players.

Liverpool had 73 per cent possession and took 70 per cent of the shots but did not score any of the goals. Chelsea netted twice on the break. Both Liverpool and Chelsea dropped points afterwards. City won all their games and overtook them.

April 30, 2012: Manchester City 1 Manchester United 0

Three weeks before United had led City by eight points. Then they wobbled and with three games to go the gap was down to three points. United played cautiously, knowing a draw would have been a satisfactory result for them. There were few chances but one went in – a Vincent Kompany header from a corner.

City went top on goal difference and finished there – thanks, two weeks later, to a Sergio Aguero added-time winner against QPR.

March 4, 1996: Newcastle 0 Manchester United 1

United had also defended years earlier at Newcastle – not out of choice then, but necessity. Newcastle led United by four points having played one game fewer. Manager Kevin Keegan called for all-out attack. Faustino Asprilla, Les Ferdinand, David Ginola and Peter Beardsley laid siege to the United goal. Peter Schmeichel kept them out. Then, early in the second half, Eric Cantona scored for United.

Newcastle won only five of their remaining ten games. United became champions.

April 5, 1993: Norwich 1 Manchester United 3

There was a three-way title race in the first season of the Premier League. Aston Villa led with six games to play. Norwich were two points behind. Manchester United were two points further back in third. Although United had a game in hand they had not won in four games. Then they beat Norwich and won all six games afterwards to give manager Sir Alex Ferguson his first title.

May 26, 1989: Liverpool 0 Arsenal 2

Arsenal had not won either of their previous two games. Liverpool in the First Division had won 13 of their last 14 and were unbeaten in 18. Liverpool led Arsenal by three points with just this game to play. To become champions Arsenal needed to win by at least two goals. They sat back, told by manager George Graham to concentrate on not conceding early rather than trying to score early. In the 53rd minute Alan Smith headed Arsenal in front. In added time Michael Thomas clipped the ball over goalkeeper Bruce Grobbelaar. Arsenal were champions on goals scored.

Not got a Paddy Power account? Sign up and get up to £50 in free sports bets

Place a single £10 Sportsbook bet and get money back as a free bet if it loses. There are x5 Free Bets available. Max refund per qualifying bet is £10. Only deposits made via Credit/Debit Card will be eligible for the promotion. Paddy's Rewards Club: Get a £10 free bet when you place 5x bets of £10+. T&Cs apply 18+ begambleaware.org

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport