The whys and wherefores of fluctuating fortunes in the Premier League

Early in Monday night’s East Midlands derby the commentator reminded us that both sides had been struggling this season – and that Leicester were said to be struggling because they had not signed enough players while Nottingham Forest were said to be struggling because they had signed too many players.

Later, after a 4-0 home win, there was less scrutiny of Leicester but even more of Forest.

One thing humans are good at is coming up with an explanation for whatever has happened. Each explanation sounds plausible on its own, but sometimes the same occurrence in different places is accounted for in contradictory ways. One team were getting bad results because they did not have enough new players, another team were getting bad results because they had too many new players.

Arsenal took the lead against Tottenham in Saturday’s north London derby with a 25-yard shot from Thomas Partey. The commentators said Tottenham had been defending deep and inviting Arsenal on to them. Sooner or later they were going to concede a goal like this, we were told.

Really? A defensive midfielder curled the ball into the top corner from outside the area. If his shot had gone high or wide we would have been told that Tottenham were happy for Arsenal to be taking potshots from distance.

After going behind, Tottenham created several chances on the break and equalised with a penalty. Now the commentators said Tottenham were playing well. They had set a trap and Arsenal had fallen into it. Tottenham were defending deep and inviting Arsenal on to them, then hitting on the counter-attack.

By half-time the commentators said Tottenham were on top. In the second half Arsenal scored two goals and Tottenham had a player sent off.

I love hearing ex-professionals on the gantry or in the studio telling me things I did not know – that this shot looks easy but is actually hard, or that pass was good but there was another that would have been better.

But when they try to interpret the ebb and flow of a game they can be as guilty as the rest of us of giving explanations that sound plausible on their own but do not make sense when put together.

Tottenham’s tactics were said to be good or bad depending on what had just happened. They were good when the game was going Tottenham’s way and bad when the game was going Arsenal’s way. Tottenham’s tactics, though, were always the same.

Things can change, but many of the explanations we give for change must be wrong. They might sound right but they must be wrong. And if we are wrong about why something has happened we can also be wrong about what will happen next.

Bournemouth are unbeaten in four games since losing 9-0 to Liverpool. Then the only predictions I heard were of more desperate results. Bournemouth had just conceded 16 goals in three games – nine to Liverpool, six to Manchester City and three to Arsenal. Since then they have conceded three goals in four games.

After losing to Liverpool, Bournemouth sacked manager Scott Parker. Many will credit the improvement in goals against to caretaker Gary O’Neil, and say he should be given the job permanently. (Words can have misleading meanings in football. Permanently means only until the team’s next run of bad results.)

There is no reason why O’Neil should not get the job, but results might still have improved without him. Even for a non-elite team playing elite opponents, a margin of defeat close to double figures is a freakish event. And freakish events, by definition, do not occur over and over again.

Dundee United lost 9-0 to Celtic in the Scottish Premiership the day after Bournemouth had lost 9-0 to Liverpool in the Premier League. In their next games Dundee United drew 0-0 with Motherwell and Bournemouth drew 0-0 with Wolves.

It was the long ball theorist Charles Reep who said that after conceding a large number of goals a team tend to concede a small number of goals. Not only does this sound plausible – in the aftermath of a heavy defeat a team’s priority will be to try to avoid another one – but it might also be right. There is evidence to back it up. After a Premier League team have conceded six goals or more, the commonest number conceded in the next game is no goals, and the second commonest number is one goal.

Just as it was wrong to think that Bournemouth would carry on shipping humiliating numbers of goals it is probably wrong now to think they will carry on averaging less than one concession per game. But I will not pretend that I know when things might change, or by how much, or why.

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