Premier League 2019-20: Top scorer predictions, odds, tips & betting guide

Don't have a Premier League top goalscorer bet without factoring in VAR.

The unknown quantity of Video Assistant Refereeing coming to England's top flight adds a new dimension to finding the potential Golden Boot winner.

There has been no significant link in the introduction of VAR to penalties awarded in Europe's elite leagues, but there has been spot-kick carnage in the Champions League and international tournaments when it was combined with the new handball laws.

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Premier League refereeing chief Mike Riley insists those under his wing won't treat handballs so harshly. Pierluigi Collina, the chairman of Fifa's referees committee, responded by saying: "What is written in the laws of the game has to be enforced in every country."

Guesswork will be needed but it makes sense for the main bet to be a renowned penalty taker just in case VAR goes bonkers.

Tottenham penalty taker Harry Kane ticks all the Golden Boot boxes

Harry Kane is definitely one of those and he has strong form with two Golden Boot wins and a second place to go with his top goalscorer accolade at the 2018 World Cup.

Last season's 17-goal return can be attributed to missing ten matches through injury and if he is fit the Tottenham hotshot is the first man on Mauricio Pochettino's teamsheet.

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Against Kane is the fact he seems to be worryingly troubled by ankle problems and any similar period of absence will probably be terminal to his chances in such hot company.

Mohamed Salah won the Golden Boot with 32 goals in 2017-18 and still claimed a share of the accolade last term with teammate Sadio Mane and Arsenal's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang despite a ten-goal drop in standards.

Salah will have his supporters again and is unlikely to be far away, although Mane is not on penalties. Both have had a truncated pre-season due to the Africa Cup of Nations.

For a forward with such a sensational strike rate Sergio Aguero has a somewhat disappointing Golden Boot record with just one victory since arriving at Manchester City in 2011.

Aguero is 31 and there is a chance Pep Guardiola will want to save his awesome Argentinian for the Champions League battles.

Expect Gabriel Jesus to get more Premier League minutes and the Brazilian, Aguero and Raheem Sterling not to mention any number of support acts could split the goalscoring burden.

Arsenal hotshot Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang looks a great bet

Arsenal have a twin threat and at double the price in places of favourite Kane, there is a case to be made for Aubameyang once again leaving pal Alexandre Lacazette in his wake.

• First scorers to follow

Aubameyang takes penalties and his 22-goal haul last season was a fine individual effort in his first full season in English football.

The Gabon goal machine was top scorer in the Bundesliga with Borussia Dortmund and missed the most big chances (23) in last season's Premier League.

Jamie Vardy is the obvious contender outside the big six, particularly after he swiftly got back to his best once Brendan Rodgers replaced Claude Puel as Leicester manager.

However, Sunderland striker Kevin Phillips in 2000 was the last player to claim the Golden Boot representing a club other than Manchester City, Manchester United, Spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea or Liverpool.

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Chelsea's starting forward is difficult to nail down, so head to United for a second bet.

Romelu Lukaku's future is unclear and it may be dangerous to assume, as the odds would suggest, that Marcus Rashford will definitely improve on career league figures of 5-5-7-10.

Paul Pogba will be on penalties, which damages all the forward options, but at three-figure odds it may still be worth taking a flyer on Anthony Martial.

He was seen as the heir apparent to Thierry Henry, a man who believes Martial was better than him at 21 and has the potential to become world class.

It has failed to happen for Martial on a consistent basis and the Frenchman seemed to fall out of love with the game under Jose Mourinho. Hopefully Ole Gunnar Solskjaer can perk him up.

Playing wide was no handicap to Mane and Salah and there is also the possibility of Martial playing through the middle, a position he has occupied in pre-season.

Recommended on July 29
P-E Aubameyang top goalscorer
1pt each-way 8-1 bet365
A Martial top goalscorer
0.5pt each-way 100-1 general

Manchester City star Gabriel Jesus praying for better luck

Expected goals have become expected chat when discussing Premier League matches, although individual expected player goals has taken a little longer to hit the football jargon.

Different data companies have different criteria for recording the possibility of each chance created, most of which is not available for public consumption, but website Understat allows punters to take a look at their expected-goal models for free.

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Some have scoffed at their rating for Robert Lewandowski for instance, who according to Understat, finished more than 11 goals behind his true figure in last season's Bundesliga. But it's definitely an interesting tool for those playing around without wishing to pay a hefty fee.

The usual suspects topped Understat's Premier League expected goals with Aubameyang just edging out Salah and Aguero in third.

A closer look, however, reveals the trials and tribulations of Gabriel Jesus, who according to the stats, should have finished the season with closer to 13 goals rather than seven.

That's some difference considering the Brazilian featured so rarely to end the campaign with an xG of more than a goal per 90 minutes, which was easily the highest of those who made more than a handful of appearances.

Jesus was often seen looking up to the heavens after missing chance after chance for City, but the 22-year-old looked back to his best in the Copa America with decisive goalscoring performances for Brazil in the semi-finals and finals, and those may have restored confidence.

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