2023-24 Premier League top-four finish odds, best bets and predictions: Consistency can ensure Magpies remain with the European elite

When does the 2023-24 Premier League season start?

Friday, August 11

2023-24 Premier League top-four finish odds

1-20 Man City, 1-2 Arsenal, 4-7 Liverpool. 4-5 Man Utd, 13-8 Chelsea, Newcastle, 7-2 Tottenham, 11-2 Brighton, 10 Aston Villa, 25 bar.

Best top-four finish bets for the 2023-24 Premier League season

Newcastle to finish in the Premier League top four
3pts 13-8 Betfair, Paddy Power

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James Milton's 2023-24 Premier League top-four finish predictions

The battle for a top-four finish, and qualification for the Champions League, provides an engrossing subplot to the drama of any Premier League season.

The parameters may well shift this term due to the expansion of the 2024-25 Champions League from 32 teams to 36. Two of the additional four places will be awarded to the countries whose clubs have the best collective performance in Europe this season – England would have taken one of the spots in four of the past five campaigns – so the Premier League’s fifth-placed club has a strong chance of qualifying for the Champions League.

The leading contenders 

From a betting perspective, the top-four market remains the focus for punters and champions Manchester City, who haven’t finished lower than fourth since 2009-10, are hot favourites to take one of the spots.

Arsenal and Liverpool are next in the betting despite having contrasting fortunes in 2022-23, when the Gunners, runners-up to City, finished 17 points clear of the fifth-placed Reds.

Both teams look progressive and are fancied to go well while Manchester United, who finished third last term, winning the EFL Cup and losing to City in the FA Cup final, are rated the most likely side to complete the top four.

That represented a solid first season at Old Trafford for Erik ten Hag although off-field uncertainty over the proposed sale of the club is a concern. United’s search for a top-class centre-forward has also dragged on and, having scored just 58 league goals last season – the same number as ninth-placed Brentford – they should be swerved at odds-on for the top four.

The chasing pack

Chelsea finished 27 points adrift of the top four, and just ten points above the relegation zone, last season but bookmakers are taking no chances with Mauricio Pochettino’s Blues in this market.

The former Tottenham and Paris St-Germain boss has a major rebuilding task on his hands after the departures of Mason Mount, Kai Havertz, Mateo Kovacic, N’Golo Kante, Cesar Azpilicueta, Kalidou Koulibaly and Edouard Mendy among others.

Centre-back Wesley Fofana’s  knee injury and Brighton’s reluctance to sell midfielder Moises Caicedo have further disrupted Chelsea’s preparations for the season and Newcastle, fourth in 2022-23 and clearly on the up, make more appeal at a similar price.

The Magpies’ expected-goals stats from last season suggest they were flattered by a goals-against tally of 33, the joint-best in the division along with champions City. 

However, according to Understat.com, their xG was 76.98 – a shade higher than runners-up Arsenal – and their tally of 71 points was fully justified by their underlying stats.

Sandro Tonali, at 23 already an experienced Italy international and a Serie A winner with Milan, was Newcastle’s first big signing of the summer, adding silk and steel to the midfield, while Harvey Barnes adds thrust on the flanks.

Alexander Isak should kick on after a debut Premier League season in which he scored ten times in just 17 starts and Anthony Gordon played a central role in England’s victory at this summer’s European Under-21 Championship.

But Newcastle have shown they are more than the sum of their parts under Eddie Howe, losing just five league games last season, and that consistency gives them an edge over Chelsea and Tottenham, who are next in the top-four betting.

Spurs fans had little to cheer last season apart from Harry Kane’s club record-breaking goalscoring feats and the England striker’s future at the club remains in major doubt.

They lost five of their last eight matches in 2022-23 and gung-ho former Celtic boss Ange Postecoglou may not be the man to tighten up a defence who conceded 63 goals – five more than any other club outside the bottom six.

The outsiders to watch

Newcastle’s rise means the traditional ‘big six’ has effectively been expanded to seven although Brighton and Aston Villa, sixth and seventh last term, finished above Spurs and Chelsea.

Roberto De Zerbi’s Seagulls were a delight to watch and, having lost Alexis Mac Allister to Liverpool they will be desperate to retain Ecuador star Caicedo.

Squad depth is a concern for Brighton, who qualified for the Europa League group stage, but Villa have strengthened impressively as they prepare for a Europa Conference League campaign.

They took 1.96 points per game after Unai Emery took charge in November, which is almost exactly the same average as third-placed Manchester United achieved over the whole season.

Whether Emery can maintain those standards over a longer period remains to be seen but, with fit-again Brazilian defender Diego Carlos joined by new signings Pau Torres, Moussa Diaby and Youri Tielemans, Villa could be set for an exciting season.

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