Sky Bet Championship: relegation, top scorer, special bets and free tips

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for the Sky Bet Championship including relegation, top scorer & special bets.

Relegation

Already advised

Birmingham to be relegated
4pts 9-2 BoyleSports, Hills
Reading to be relegated
3pts 10-3 Sky Bet

Best bet

Luton Town to be relegated
4pts 6-5 Betfred
Back this tip with bet365

Verdict

Luton have had plenty of success in recent years, winning three promotions in six seasons, but they look exposed in the Sky Bet Championship and may struggle to stay out of the relegation zone.

There is little doubt that Luton's long-term future looks bright.

They have been given planning permission to build a new 17,500-seater stadium which would put them on a more even footing with second-tier clubs.

But at the moment they operate on one of the smallest budgets in the division and it shows.

They have lost 14 of 22 matches and have the section's worst defensive record having conceded 46 goals.

The Hatters made seven permanent signings this summer but only midfielder Ryan Tunnicliffe has been a regular starter.

And Luton have undoubtedly missed the quality of exciting full-backs Jack Stacey and James Justin, who were sold to Bournemouth and Leicester.

Under the circumstances they have competed as well as can be expected and it is a credit to manager Graeme Jones that they are two points above the drop zone.

However, the toughest part of the season may be yet to come because two of the three teams below them (third-bottom Stoke and basement boys Barnsley) are showing signs of improvement under new managers.

Stoke have taken ten points from their first seven games under Michael O'Neill and have a squad capable of doing much better.

They should get out of trouble and Barnsley are not without hope after responding well to the arrival of Austrian head coach Gerhard Struber.

The Tykes have taken seven points from three home games under Struber and are the top scorers among the bottom ten.

Second-bottom Wigan look at greater risk but will have taken heart from recent 1-1 draws at home to West Brom and Huddersfield which could easily have been victories.

They have untapped talent in talented teenager Joe Gelhardt and any improvement would ratchet up the pressure on Luton, who face a tough second half of the season.

Top scorer

Already advised

Karlan Grant
1pt each-way 16-1 general
Benik Afobe
1pt each-way 40-1 Coral, Ladbrokes
Chuks Aneke
0.5pt each-way 150-1bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

Best bet

Ollie Watkins top scorer
1pt 10-1 Coral, Ladbrokes
Back this tip with bet365

Verdict

Aleksandar Mitrovic is on course to justify his status as ante-post market-leader in the top scorer betting but there is a shade over half of the season remaining and it is not inconceivable that the Serb could be overhauled.

Fulham's decision to hand Mitrovic a new five-year-contract has been vindicated by their number nine contributing 16 of their 33 goals.

Mitrovic has shortened to odds-on to top the scoring charts. But he faces stiff competition from Hull attacker Jarrod Bowen (15 goals), Brentford centre-forward Ollie Watkins (13), Sheffield Wednesday's Steven Fletcher (12) and Huddersfield's Karlan Grant (12).

Backing Bowen carries significant risk because the 23-year-old is out of contract next summer and is sure to be on the radar of a few Premier League clubs.

However, Watkins signed a new four-year contract (with the option of a further year) this summer and looks less likely than Bowen to move on.

The Bees are looking to Watkins to continue spearheading their promotion push and there is scope for him to score many more goals as the focal point of a superb three-pronged attack featuring Said Benrahma and Bryan Mbeumo.

Brentford have a recent history of performing better in the second half of the season and that is good news for Watkins, who can give Mitrovic a run for his money.

Specials

Already advised

Blackburn top-half finish
5pts 11-8 Betfred, Hills
Fulham top London club
6pts 10-11 bet365
Bristol City top-six finish
3pts 11-4Hills

New bet

Cardiff bottom-half finish
2pts 15-8Power

Verdict

Cardiff produced one of the comebacks of the season when recovering from 3-0 down to draw 3-3 at Leeds on Saturday but they are probably disappointed with their opening half of the season and might struggle to improve over the next four-and-a-half months.

The Bluebirds were third-favourites in the ante-post title betting but have won eight of their 22 games and are 12th.

Seven of their victories have come at home but maintaining such a dominant home record will be tough because none of the top four have visited the Cardiff City Stadium.

A decline in home results looks likely and that could mean Cardiff are dragged even further down the table.

The teams immediately below them – QPR, Hull, Birmingham and Derby – have scope for improvement and could overtake the Bluebirds, who look decent value for a bottom-half finish.

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