Real Madrid learned the hard way that you need the ball most when losing

When Real Madrid lost 1-0 at CSKA Moscow in the Champions League they had 70 per cent possession. How was that possible? How could they have so much of the ball and lose? It was because they lost that they had so much of the ball.

Two weeks earlier Madrid won 3-0 at home to Roma with 59 per cent possession. Roma are better opponents than CSKA – despite those results –and we would expect them to have more of the ball. Even allowing for differences in opponents, however, teams generally have more possession when they lose than when they win.

Against any given opponents a team are likely to have more possession if they lose than they would have done if they had won.

That is the opposite of what you might have imagined. There are good reasons why it happens, though, as we shall see. And it has implications for many betting markets.

I took results from the last 16 Premier League seasons, 2002-03 to 2017-18. Then I divided games into groups according to the difference in final league positions between the teams. In that way I gathered together similar games.

For each group I noted the possession of the higher finishers and lower finishers in games that the higher finisher won, games that were drawn and games that the lower finisher won.

And what I found across all groups was that teams tended to have more possession when they lost than when they drew, and more possession when they drew than when they won.

Typically the difference in possession-share between losing and winning was about three per cent. That might not sound like much but it works out as almost two minutes more with the ball and two minutes fewer without the ball. (Remember: the ball is in play usually for less than 60 minutes not 90 minutes plus added time).

Goals change games, as Brian Clough used to say.

When a team take the lead they become more cautious. They do not have to score again to win. All they need to do is not concede. So they commit fewer players to attacks, which peter out more quickly.

When a team fall behind they become more adventurous. They will lose unless they score. So they send more players forward to join attacks, which therefore last longer.

A goal in a football match is like a key-change in a song. Afterwards everything is a bit different. The team who are losing have more of the ball than they did before, the team who are winning have less of the ball than they did before.

Real Madrid conceded in the second minute in Moscow. Every time they got the ball for the rest of the match they attacked as hard as they could. Twenty-six attacks culminated in an attempt on goal – but, unusually, none of those attempts went in. After every failed attack they had to try again.

It was because Real Madrid lost that they had so much of the ball.

Dirk Gently was a holistic detective in novels by Douglas Adams. He believed in the “the fundamental interconnectedness of all things”. He would not have been surprised that shifts in possession during a football match affect other things. Corners, for instance, and bookings.

The longer a team spend with the ball near the opposition’s goal the more corners they are likely to force.

Against any given opponents a team are likely to gain a higher share of the corners if they lose than they would have done if they had won. Typically, according to my research, about five per cent more.

They are likely to provoke more yellow and red cards too. At first this might sound counter-intuitive. Most cards are shown for a misjudged attempt to regain the ball, and teams spend less time without the ball when they lose than when they win. When they are losing, however, they are more desperate to regain the ball.

Typically, I have found, teams receive a seven per cent higher share of all cards when they lose than they would have done if they had won.

I use this knowledge as an early warning system for the fate of my tips.

In August I tipped Ipswich to take most corners in a Championship game against Aston Villa. I prepared myself for the worst when I saw that an Ipswich player had been sent off in the 39th minute with the score at one goal each. The final score was 1-1.

Villa should have been a better team than Ipswich. They would not have settled for a draw even at 11 v 11. For most of the rest of the match they would have besieged an undermanned defence. Ipswich lost the corner count 7-2.

Last month I tipped Bradford to take at least as many corners as Charlton in a League One game. My hopes rose when I saw that Bradford had conceded a goal in the third minute and lost 2-0. For the rest of the match they would have done more attacking than might have been possible otherwise. Bradford won the corner count 6-1.

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