Premier League winner odds & predictions: Champions City should overhaul Arsenal

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Newcastle to finish in the top four
3pts 11-8 general

Aston Villa to finish in the top half
2pts 7-4 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

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The 2022-23 Premier League campaign resumes on December 26 and Manchester City are 4-9, from 8-13 ante-post, to claim the title for the fifth time in six seasons.

So far, so predictable, but below City the market starts to get interesting. Arsenal, 50-1 for the title before the season, are no bigger than 5-2 after taking 37 points from 14 matches before the World Cup break, leaving them five points clear of the champions at the top.

Next in the title betting come Newcastle at 33-1. Eddie Howe's men started 2022 in the Premier League relegation zone but have picked up an average of two points per game this year – for context, Tottenham average 1.94, Chelsea 1.66 and Manchester United just 1.56 – and are expected to bolster their squad in January's transfer window.

The Magpies, 100-1 for the title before a ball had been kicked, are now the same price as Liverpool, who were 11-4 in the ante-post market but are already 15 points off the pace set by Arsenal.

Tottenham's inconsistency is epitomised by the fact that they won four and lost four of their eight games leading up to the World Cup. Those defeats came against top-four rivals Arsenal, Manchester United, Newcastle and Liverpool, and reports suggest manager Antonio Conte may be gearing up for his traditional transfer-window strop.

United have had a tumultuous start under Erik ten Hag, who lost his first two league games against Brighton and Brentford, then won four on the trot before a 6-3 derby demolition by City.

Cristiano Ronaldo's departure should make Ten Hag's job simpler but United's last two results, a 3-1 loss at Aston Villa and a last-ditch 2-1 win at Fulham, suggest they will do well to make the top four.

Chelsea, one of six top-flight teams to change their manager in the first 15 rounds of fixtures, are in a similar position to United, albeit with five fewer points.

Graham Potter, brought in to replace Thomas Tuchel in September, won his first three league fixtures but draws with Brentford and United were followed by three damaging defeats just before the World Cup break.

A 4-1 loss at Potter's former club Brighton and 1-0 defeats to Arsenal and Newcastle have left the Blues with serious ground to make up and their xG stats suggest that even a modest tally of 17 goals in 14 games may flatter them.

Chelsea are out to 300-1 to win the league, from 16-1 at the start of term, but can their London rivals Arsenal stay the course or will City turn the title race into a procession in 2023?

Gunners face tricky run of games after season restart

Bookmakers are taking Arsenal seriously in the title betting and the Gunners' haul of 12 wins from their first 14 matches has been merited by their consistently strong performances.

They had a soft set of early fixtures before losing 3-1 at Manchester United in a game they could easily have won. End-of-season losses at Tottenham and Newcastle cost Arsenal a top-four place in 2021-22 but they have shown far more steel and composure in big matches this term, beating Spurs and Liverpool at home and claiming a well-deserved 1-0 win at Chelsea in the first week of November.

The good news for Arsenal is that they have already established huge points advantages over ailing big-six rivals United, Liverpool and Chelsea.

The bad news is that they still have 24 matches remaining and they will have to hit the ground running as their Boxing Day clash with West Ham is followed by tough fixtures against Brighton, Newcastle, Spurs and United.

Brazilian forward Gabriel Jesus, an inspirational summer signing from City, was injured at the World Cup and could be out until March so it would be no surprise to see the Citizens clear of Arsenal by the time the teams meet on February 15.

The champions lost their last game at home to Brentford and also face a testing run of fixtures at the start of 2023 but they should be in good shape with 18-goal striker Erling Haaland raring to go and Kevin De Bruyne's Belgium going out of the World Cup at the group stage.

Magnificent Magpies equipped to maintain top-four challenge

The City-Arsenal straight forecast is 5-6 with City to finish first and Liverpool second at 10-1. The Reds almost overturned a huge points deficit in last season's title race but Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota are still sidelined and making the top four is the main objective.

The best bet at this stage may be for Newcastle to break into the top four. The Magpies have won seven of their previous eight games, scoring 21 goals and conceding just four, and they are in third place on merit despite injuries to key attacking players Callum Wilson, Allan Saint-Maximin and Alexander Isak.

Only five of their 15 games have been against teams in the current bottom eight and their next seven opponents include Leicester, Leeds, Fulham, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Bournemouth so they should maintain their fine form even before any January signings are integrated into the side.

Six clubs, including Newcastle, are 1-4 or shorter to make the top six, with Chelsea at 4-7, but there could be some juice in Aston Villa's price to make the top half.

Unai Emery's first two matches as Villa boss were wins over Manchester United and Brighton and, with a shrewd new manager, World Cup-winning goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez, and Ollie Watkins and Danny Ings back among the goals, a top-ten finish should be in Villa's sights.

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