Players will always find ways to break rules and get away with it

Burnley manager Sean Dyche has complained that a player is allowed to cheat once a game. His bugbear is diving. He said he was told at a Premier League meeting that if a player was caught diving the worst punishment they could suffer was a yellow card.

“Have you ever thought about that?” Dyche asked. “I don’t know any sport where they tell you that you can cheat once a game. I’ve never seen that in sport before.”

There are examples in football of a player being allowed to cheat not just once but several times. There always have been and presumably always will be. Otherwise players would be sent off for the first deliberate breach of any rule.

Law 12 lists acts for which a player should be cautioned. One is unsporting behaviour, which includes diving. Above it is the crime of “persistent offences”. Nearly always this is persistent fouling. Most persistent foulers do not foul deliberately, but some do.

The rules of football say in effect: if you do X you will be punished by Y. If you do not want Y you try not to do X. Sometimes, though, a player will decide that the punishment Y might be the best outcome they could get from a situation. So they will commit the offence and accept the punishment.

Tactical fouling falls into this category. A player whose team have just lost the ball will deliberately foul an opponent to stop a dangerous counter-attack. They think the least-bad outcome is a free-kick against them far from goal, even if it is preceded by a yellow card (which it should be but not always is).

If the football authorities do not like anything that is happening they can always change the rules and impose stricter punishments.

Which is what Dyche wants. He asked for divers to be banned. Perhaps in time enough others will agree with him for the rules to be changed. But there will probably always be rules that a player can break, even several times, and keep playing.

Bet of the day

Oldham could have more of the play in their Sky Bet League Two game at Cambridge United than bet365 envisage. Back Oldham +2 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 1.825, or 33-40 in fractional odds.

If Oldham lose the corners count by three or more the bet will fail, if they lose it by two stakes will be refunded, and if anything else happens the bet will succeed. The prospect of a payout might be better than the odds anticipate.

Cambridge have started the season well with two wins following two draws. Oldham have started poorly with just one draw following three defeats.

They could carry on at the same rate, in which case they will finish in very different positions. At this stage, though, experience counsels caution. Cambridge might not be quite as good as their first four results suggest and Oldham might not be as bad.

The result-related markets for the Abbey Stadium, which seem to be spot-on, imply a 44 per cent chance of a Cambridge win, a 28 per cent chance of a draw and also a 28 per cent chance of an Oldham win.

Generally there is a relationship between goals scored and conceded and corners for and against. Goals and corners are both occasional consequences of attacking. The more attacking one team do in relation to the other then, all things being equal, the more goals they will score and the more corners they will gain.

Over the last two decades in Football League games with result expectations comparable to those for Cambridge v Oldham fair decimal odds about the away team +2 Asian handicap corners would typically have been 1.7.

There is nothing that stands out from the corners records of Cambridge or Oldham, this season or last, to suggest that today the price ought to be as high as 1.825. Odds of 1.825 imply a 55 per cent chance of a payout if there is one. Odds of 1.7 imply a 59 per cent chance of a payout if there is one.

Across their first four games under the direction of Laurent Banide, a former Monaco manager, Oldham have averaged 44 per cent possession. But they might have more of the play in this game. Whether they do, and whatever the score, there are grounds for thinking that the odds for Oldham +2 Asian handicap corners should not be as big as bet365 make them.

Recommendation
Oldham +2 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.825 bet365

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