Nations League finals predictions: European champions look hard to beat at home

Free football tips, best bets and outright analysis for this week's Nations League finals in Italy.

Best bet

Italy to win the Nations League
1pt 10-3 bet365

Verdict

Italy delivered a superb away performance to overcome England in the Euro 2020 final and they can benefit from passionate home support to seal Nations League glory this week.

Roberto Mancini's side were among six teams afforded home advantage for every group-stage fixture at Euro 2020 and they made it count by registering victories over Turkey (3-0), Switzerland (3-0) and Wales (1-0).

There will be tougher tests to overcome this week, starting with a rerun of the Euro 2020 semi-final against Spain, but Italy have the tools to get the job done.

The incredible high of winning Euro 2020 was always going to be tough to sustain and Italy dropped far below those standards in two of their September World Cup qualifiers, drawing at home to Bulgaria (1-1) and away to Switzerland (0-0).

They failed to find the same intensity as they had shown at the Euros and looked a fairly ordinary bunch but Mancini is sure to have his players wound up to play with greater intent this week and Italy's opponents could be the ones to suffer.

Spain impressed at Euro 2020 where they showed that they are still a team to be feared at major tournaments.

But La Roja's squad is not the deepest and their chances of making an impact in the Nations League are hampered by the absences of seven injured players, including 18-year-old Barcelona midfielder Pedri, who was their outstanding performer this summer.

Italy can get past Spain at the San Siro on Wednesday and would have a great chance of beating France or Belgium at the same venue in Sunday's final.

Belgium remain a dangerous side due to the outstanding match-winning qualities of Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku but their ageing defence, featuring Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen, is probably not strong enough to cope with elite opposition.

France forward Kylian Mbappe looks the perfect weapon to expose the Belgians' ponderous rearguard and he would undoubtedly be a threat to Italy or Spain if Les Bleus reached the final.

A weekend contest between Italy and France would be tough to call because both sides are tough to break down and both have the ability to do serious damage with swift counter-attacks.

However, France are without a key plank of their midfield with N'Golo Kante unavailable due to Covid, and that may offer enough of an advantage to Italy, who look value to collect a second trophy in three months.

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