Morecambe v Newport County predictions: League Two final should be a cracker

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Morecambe v Newport County in the League Two playoff final on Monday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event & Sky Sports Football, 3pm Monday

Best bet

Both teams to score
3pts 10-11 general

Matt Dolan to be first goalscorer
0.5pts each-way 14-1 bet365

Advised on May 13

Newport to be promoted
1pt 13-5 bet365

Team news

Morecambe
Kelvin Mellor is available but may not displace Ryan Cooney at right-back. John O'Sullivan is sidelined and Jordan Slew and Stephen Hendrie are doubts.

Newport County
Veteran forwards Kevin Ellison and Nicky Maynard may again start on the bench despite scoring late goals in the second leg against Forest Green. Lewis Collins should be fit enough to start.

Match preview

Newport County came through a cracking semi-final tie against Forest Green and Exiles supporters should be steeling themselves for more drama in their League Two playoff final against Morecambe.

Newport's 2-0 lead from the first leg was wiped out within eight minutes and Forest Green went ahead in the tie shortly after half-time.

It was the kind of situation that sorts the men from the boys so Newport boss Michael Flynn sent on 42-year-old forward Kevin Ellison, who scored in the 70th minute before fellow substitute Joss Labadie put County 4-3 up on aggregate.

But a late goal from former Exiles star Jamille Matt took the tie to extra-time when a third of Flynn's inspirational subs, veteran striker Nicky Maynard, finally sealed their progress in the 119th minute.

Newport have had a week to recover from their nail-biting trip to Nailsworth and they are slight favourites to see off Morecambe and win promotion to League One, eight years after coming up from the Conference.

Morecambe, however, have been upsetting the odds all season having been 25-1 outsiders in the ante-post promotion betting.

Manager Derek Adams, who succeeded club stalwart Jim Bentley in November 2019, has conjured up a magnificent campaign from the Shrimps, leading them to fourth in the table, just one point outside the automatic-promotion spots.

They came into the playoffs in good heart after winning five of their last six regular-season fixtures, scoring 15 goals in the process, and they produced an impressive smash-and-grab display in a 2-1 semi-final first-leg win at Tranmere.

Rovers had 75 per cent of possession and 18 attempts on goal to Morecambe's seven in the first leg and Adams's side were also put under pressure in the second leg which finished 1-1 despite Tranmere pushing hard for the goal that would have taken it to extra-time.

Morecambe's strong finish to the season included a 4-1 win over Scunthorpe and a 4-3 victory against Oldham while they lost both regular-season meetings with Newport, 3-1 at home and 2-1 at Rodney Parade.

Thirteen of the clubs' 16 league clashes have featured goals at both ends and it could be worth backing that trend to continue at Wembley.

Morecambe's defensive record against the stronger teams in League Two was poor, conceding an average of 1.68 goals per game against the rest of the top half, while Newport failed to score in just two of their 23 regular-season away games.

Both teams found the net in 16 of the Exiles' road trips, as well as the semi-final second leg, and Matt Dolan, who should start in midfield having played at the back for much of the season, is an intriguing first-goalscorer bet in the final.

Dolan scored penalties in both regular-season games against Morecambe, struck twice in the 2-1 home win over Bradford in March, and broke the deadlock with a cracking strike from distance in the semi-final first leg against Forest Green.

Key stat

Both teams have scored in 13 of the 16 League Two meetings between these clubs.

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