Liverpool's Old Trafford victory odds demonstrate challenge facing Erik ten Hag

Last season's points total of 58, their lowest of the Premier League era, was supposed to be Manchester United's nadir. But after two games of the new campaign they are rock-bottom of the table and their business off the field looks as directionless as their play on it.

The Red Devils were 4-0 down before half-time at Brentford last weekend and United fans were left wincing at the potential punishment Liverpool, who thrashed them 5-0 and 4-0 last term, could dish out on Monday night.

United had been as big as 6-1 to beat Liverpool after the Brentford debacle but they have shortened slightly following the Reds' 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace on Monday. Striker Darwin Nunez, Liverpool's record signing, was sent off on his home debut and will be suspended for the trip to Old Trafford.

Despite that slight drift, odds of 4-7 represent the shortest price Liverpool have been for a trip to Old Trafford since Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement.

As the accompanying graph shows, the other time Liverpool were odds-on at Old Trafford was early in the 2019-20 season, when they were 8-11 to beat a United side languishing in 14th place after winning just two of their opening eight matches during Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's first full campaign.

The good news for United fans is that on that occasion they dug in to grind out a 1-1 draw, ending Liverpool's eight-game winning start to the season.

The only time the Red Devils have been a bigger price at Old Trafford was in April 2019 when they went off at 13-2 against a Manchester City side desperate for three points to move back ahead of Liverpool with four games to go in a title race that went down to the wire.

To get an idea of just how low the market rates the current United team, Liverpool are a similar price for victory on Monday as they were on visits to Crystal Palace (8-15) and Brighton (1-2) in the second half of last season.

United are already out to 7-1 for a top-four finish, having been 2-1 at the start of the season, and a battle to maintain their position in the top six looks a more immediate fight. They were 4-7 to make the top six before a ball was kicked this term but are now 8-5.

Gary Neville claimed on Sky's Monday Night Football that it is conceivable that United could slump to a bottom-half finish if they fail to make the right moves before the transfer window closes. That is a 4-1 chance and, as the bar chart shows, Neville's claim is not without substance.

Since January 1, United rank joint-11th alongside Wolves in terms of average points per game in the Premier League. That sample consists of more than half a season's amount of matches and would equate to a points total of around 47 over an entire campaign.

The lack of stability at Old Trafford since Ferguson's retirement is exemplified by the fact that United's starting 11 against Brentford contained players signed by five different managers.

Ten Hag's arrival was supposed to herald an aggressive, possession-based brand of football but the United hierarchy are yet to supply him with the requisite tools to implement his philosophy.

United may look less vulnerable and get more out of their existing squad if they were to retreat to a more counter-attacking style - an approach most of the players were assembled for - but what would have been the point in appointing Ten Hag if they did?

Ten Hag's approach brings high rewards when adopted by top-quality or dominant sides, as his Ajax team were in the Eredivisie. But it is also high-risk, as a high line and aggressive positioning of full-backs leaves less cover if the ball is turned over.

United have lacked the physical presence to press successfully and their goalkeeper and midfield struggle to progress the ball, meaning they offer up big chances too often when giving away possession.

Even if United land some decent transfer targets by the end of the window, five games (13 per cent of the campaign) will have elapsed by then and any new arrivals would need time to settle.

Liverpool finished eighth in Jurgen Klopp's first season at the helm, as did Arsenal in Mikel Arteta's first term, which may provide United fans with some hope that a cultural and tactical reboot can still occur even after shaky starts.

However, both of those managers received the boardroom support they required and it remains to be seen whether Ten Hag will get the same backing from his Old Trafford paymasters.

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