Kevin Pullein: Saturday's best bet from the soccer boffin

Best bet

Under 11.5 Asian total corners Cologne v Frankfurt
1pt 1.775 bet365

Back under 11.5 Asian total corners in the Bundesliga match between Cologne and Frankfurt. Bet365 offer decimal odds of 1.775 – similar to fractional odds of 10-13 – and that may be too big.

In the Bundesliga over the past ten seasons 72 per cent of games have featured fewer than 11.5 corners. The percentage has not changed in the 64 games played behind closed doors. And there is no evidence that a high total is more likely on the penultimate weekend of a season, when home teams are playing their last home game.

Decimal odds of 1.775 imply only a 56 per cent chance of a payout. As you would expect, there is a reason why bet365 offer them. It is Cologne.

Last season Cologne won Bundesliga 2 and their home games averaged 12 corners. During the summer Achim Beierlorzer succeeded Markus Anfang as manager. For Cologne’s first five home games back in the Bundesliga corners averaged 13. In November Beierlorzer was sacked. He became manager of Mainz, whose games have since generated a lot of corners.

With Markus Gisdol as manager, however, Cologne’s home games have averaged just ten corners. Before last season there were no prolonged periods of high corners make-ups in Cologne’s home games. It is possible that the rash of inflamed totals has subsided. It could flare up again, of course. But there do seem to be reasonable grounds for suggesting that the right odds about fewer than 11.5 corners being taken today might be shorter than 1.775.

There is little riding on the match. Cologne are six points above Dusseldorf, who are in the relegation playoff place, and have a goal difference better by 15. With only two games to play Cologne are unlikely to be overtaken even if they lose both. One point today would guarantee another season in the Bundesliga. And even that will be unnecessary if Dusseldorf do not beat Augsburg.

Frankfurt cannot be relegated and probably will not make up the five-point gap to the last Europa League position.

Seemingly good bets can lose and seemingly bad bets can win. Any number of corners could be taken today by Cologne and Frankfurt. But there do seem to be plausible reasons for thinking that under 11.5 corners could be a good bet.

Thought for the week

Hawk-Eye have gone up in my estimation.

Their goal-line technology missed the ball crossing between the posts and under the bar on Wednesday in a Premier League game at Aston Villa. Sheffield United should have been awarded a goal but were not.

Things can go wrong. Nothing works perfectly all the time. Including technology.

What lifted Hawk-Eye in my esteem was how they reacted to their technology getting caught out. With good grace. They apologised unreservedly. There was none of the spin, doublespeak, excuse-making, blame-shifting or bluster we usually get from companies, organisations, or governments, when things go wrong.

Hawk-Eye said they use seven cameras to track the ball and while it was behind the line all of them were blocked by a player or a post. This was the first time in the Premier League that their method had clearly failed.

I cannot get upset about VAR Paul Tierney not reviewing footage and awarding the goal. He would not be the first person to think that because they had never heard of something going wrong before it could not go wrong now. Most people think that way. He was looking for the things he had been told to look for, and he carried on looking for them as play moved swiftly on.

VARs should be asked to check in future for obvious errors in goal line technology. Meanwhile thank you, Hawk-Eye, for such a straightforward expression of regret.