Kevin Pullein: free football betting tips & analysis from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Under ten Asian total corners in Arsenal v Fulham
1pt Evs bet365

It is just possible that bet365 have underestimated the chance of a low number of corners being taken in tomorrow’s Premier League game between Arsenal and Fulham.

Back under ten Asian total corners at evens. If more than ten corners are taken the bet will lose, if ten are taken stakes will be returned, and if fewer than ten are taken the bet will win.

This season in the Premier League there have been 148 games with fewer than ten corners, 43 games with ten corners and 119 games with more than ten corners. So under ten has occurred more often than over ten.

Admittedly, the number of corners likely to be taken varies from fixture to fixture. The greater the difference in ability between teams, as a general rule, the poorer the prospect of a small corners makeup.

Arsenal versus Fulham is a game in which there appears to be a wider than average contrast in talent between the teams. As there should be; Arsenal’s budget is much bigger than Fulham’s.

Result-related odds imply roughly a 55 per cent chance of an Arsenal win, a 26 per cent chance of a draw and a 19 per cent chance of a Fulham victory. So a low corners total is less likely at the Emirates than it would be in some Premier League contests.

And it is easy to imagine ways in which the tally could soar. If Arsenal do not take the lead, or if they fall behind, they might have to attack with higher than usual intensity and force lots of corners. If Arsenal do get in front, though, Fulham may have to push forward with increasing desperation – they are in the relegation zone, having played one game more than the teams around them, and after tomorrow they will have only five games to go. Then Fulham could force lots of corners.

Even so, it is possible that under ten Asian total corners should be at least a bit shorter than the evens quoted by bet365.

Thought for the week

For what would be only the third time in 26 years the FA Cup could be won by a team other than Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City or Manchester United.

Leicester and Southampton have reached the semi-finals and play each other on Sunday. One of them will be in the final.

More likely, though, the trophy will be lifted again by a member of the recently dominant group with Chelsea meeting Manchester City in the first semi-final on Saturday.

Of one thing we can be sure. For the 25th time in 26 years the FA Cup will be won by a team who were in the top half of the Premier League when they played in the third round. Leicester were third, Manchester City fifth, Southampton sixth and Chelsea ninth.

Manchester City beat Chelsea in a 2013 semi-final as Sergio Aguero scored the decisive goal in a 2-1 win.

Of the four semi-finalists, Manchester City have the best semi-final qualification record with 11 victories out of 15 (73 per cent), followed by Chelsea with 14 out of 24 (58 per cent), Leicester with four out of seven (57 per cent) and Southampton with four out of 12 (33 per cent).

Leicester are the only side of the final four yet to lift the FA Cup already. They have lost each of their four finals, most recently in 1969 by 1-0 to Manchester City.

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