Kevin Pullein: free football betting tips & analysis from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Under 11 Asian total corners Dundee United v Ross County
1pt 1.875 bet365

Bet on a low number of corners in the Scottish Premiership game between Dundee United and Ross County.

With bet365 back under 11 Asian total corners at decimal odds of 1.875, equivalent to a fractional price of 35-40. If the number of corners taken is higher than 11 the bet will lose, if it is 11 stakes will be returned, and if it is lower than 11 the bet will win.

Admittedly the omens are not encouraging, but omens can be misleading.

There have been lots of corners this season in Dundee United games and in Ross County games – an average of 11.4 in Ross County away games. There was a makeup of 19 at Livingston, 16 at St Johnstone, 14 at Kilmarnock and 13 at Hibernian. There have been more totals above 11 than below.

And today’s game matters to Ross County. At kick off they will be in the relegation playoff place. They could move out of it if they win (if Kilmarnock are beaten by Motherwell), but if they lose they could drop into the automatic relegation place (if Hamilton beat St Mirren).

So they will be trying to attack vigorously right up to the final whistle if the score is going against them, and if it is going for them they will defend vigorously right up to the final whistle. In other words, there could be a lot of goalmouth action.

Dundee United, promoted for the start of this season, have already secured another 12 months in the Premiership. And there have been a lot of corners in some of their games – more than 11 in their last two home games and four of their last five at all venues.

So the records of the teams confirm that a high makeup could occur. There could be more than 11 corners. Sooner or later, however, unusual records tend to become less unusual. Sooner or later there will be fewer corners in Dundee United games and Ross County games. We do not know when that process will start, but bet365 may have underestimated the chance that it will start today.

Thought for the week

Callum Wilson scored for Newcastle against Liverpool last Saturday but VAR disallowed the goal for handball. Where did the ball hit him? In the middle of his biceps, about halfway between his shoulder and elbow. Okay.

So if that part of a player’s body was in an offside position in the build-up to a goal VAR would not give offside? They would say you cannot be offside with a part of your body you are not allowed to touch the ball with?

Er, no. VARs in the Premier League have disallowed goals for offside even though they would have called handball if later in the move that part of the arm had touched the ball. Fifa have warned against such double standards, but Premier League VARs have not changed.

They do other things to reverse decisions wrongly for offside. Arsenal were denied a penalty against Everton last Friday because Nicolas Pepe’s elbow was in an offside position after the ball had been played toward him. Of course VAR would have penalised Pepe if he had touched the ball with his elbow. And offside is supposed to be decided when the ball is played. VARs sometimes freeze the frame after.

Sometimes they give a player offside even when they cannot make him look offside. They denied Wolves a goal against Fulham even though on their chosen image with their selected lines the attacker and defender were level. Level is not supposed to be offside. I switch off my television whenever VAR spoils a game unnecessarily. I switch off quite regularly.

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