Kevin Pullein: free football betting tips & analysis from the Soccer Boffin

Best bet

Osasuna 0 Asian handicap cards
1pt 1.6 bet365

Since Zinedine Zidane returned as manager, Real Madrid have received more cards than their opponents when playing away from home in La Liga. In 33 games spread over three seasons they have received 72 yellows and four reds while their opponents have received 70 yellows and one red.

That is unusual. It did not happen when Zidane was manager before. And it did not happen to any of the half-dozen other managers Real have employed during the past dozen seasons.

So it is understandable that bet365 should quote an Asian handicap cards line of 0 for tonight’s La Liga game between Osasuna and Real. Given the aforementioned facts some might think that decimal odds of 1.6 – equivalent to fractional odds of 6-10 – for Osasuna are too short. They might be too big, however.

Back Osasuna. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If Osasuna’s total is higher than Real’s the bet will win, if it is the same stakes will be refunded and if it is lower the bet will win.

Real’s results have not been as good as they usually are, but they are still second in the table and Osasuna are second from bottom. They are rightly regarded as strong favourites in other markets to score most goals. Those odds imply something like a 13 per cent chance of an Osasuna win, a 21 per cent chance of a draw and a 66 per cent chance of a Real win.

In other La Liga games with a similar anticipated balance of play the hosts would usually be much shorter than decimal odds of 1.6 to receive most cards. And it is possible that today Osasuna should be at least a bit shorter.

Real’s stats suggest otherwise, and they cover a long time. But they are still uncharacteristic of an elite Spanish team, which Real still are. Sooner or later Real will receive a smaller share of the cards in their away games. And the chance of that process starting today may not be expressed fully in the odds.

Thought for the week

The chance of upsets in the third round of the FA Cup has risen slightly with the removal of replays. There will be none in the competition this season.

Despite all the talk we hear about the romance of the FA Cup, most owners of lower-level clubs in normal circumstances would prefer a replay against higher level opponents if scores were level after 90 minutes. They would rather have the money it could bring. They are more likely to reach the next round, though, with extra time and possibly a penalty shootout.

Time in sport is the friend of the most skilful competitor and the enemy of the least skilful. The longer a contest the more likely it becomes that class will tell. Or, to put it another way, the more likely it becomes that the participant who should have an edge will come out on top. A casino can beat a customer at roulette over one spin of the wheel but it is much more likely to do so over a hundred spins.

If a lower-level football team are level with their higher-level opponents after 90 minutes they are less likely to lose over 30 minutes of extra time than over another full 90 minutes. And more likely to draw, which would take them to penalties. Skill does seem to play some part in penalty shootouts, but much less than it does ordinarily over an hour and a half of open play.

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