Kevin Pullein: free football betting tips & analysis from the Soccer Boffin

Best bet

Under ten Asian total corners in Borussia Monchengladbach v Schalke
1pt 1.85 bet365

Bet365 may just have underestimated the prospect of a low number of corners in the Bundesliga game between Borussia Monchengladbach and Schalke.

Back under ten Asian total corners at decimal odds of 1.85 – equivalent to fractional odds of 17-20. If the number of corners taken is lower than ten the bet will win, if it is ten stakes will be refunded and if it is higher than ten the bet will lose.

Schalke have started the season with some horrible results. They lost their first two games by an aggregate score of 11-1, after which manager David Wagner was sacked and replaced by Manuel Baum. Since then Schalke have avoided defeat in three games out of six but are still to win. They are bottom of the table on goal difference.

There have been lots of corners in Schalke’s games. There was one make-up of 13, one of 12 and three of 11. The other make-ups were two of nine – only just below today’s line – and one of seven.

So there have been five makeups higher than ten and only three lower than ten, which does not sound encouraging. On the other hand, five of Monchengladbach’s games have produced fewer than ten corners and only two have produced more. There was one make-up of ten.

There is probably a lot of noise in this early season data, both ways.

Last season there were more than ten corners in only 13 of Schalke’s games and only 13 of Monchengladbach’s games. There were fewer then ten corners in 17 of Schalke’s games and 21 of Monchengladbach’s games. So for both teams low make-ups were noticeably more common than high make-ups.

Over the past ten completed seasons – 2010-11 to 2019-20 – fair odds about under ten Asian total corners in a randomly chosen Bundesliga fixure would have been about 1.75. Arguably there are no powerfully strong reasons for thinking the odds at Borussia-Park today should be much if any bigger.

Thought for the week

There is a lot of gloom among Celtic supporters. Some want manager Neil Lennon to be sacked.

On Thursday Celtic were knocked out of the Europa League. They might not have expected to qualify from a group with Milan and Lille, but they would have hoped for better than two heavy defeats by Sparta Prague.

In the Scottish Premiership Celtic have 30 points after 13 games. This is not much slower than normal pace. If they accumulated points at the same rate over the rest of the season they would finish with 88. On its own that would not be an awful prospect. Celtic won the Premiership in each of the previous nine seasons. And ignoring last season, which was cut short, their average end-of-season total was 91.

This is easily overlooked, however. Because if Celtic win this season they would accomplish an unprecedented ten in a row. Both Celtic and Rangers in the past have won nine times in a row, but never ten. And Rangers have begun this season with 41 points from 15 games. If Rangers gathered points at the same rate over the rest of the season they would finish with 104. This has been their best start in 53 seasons.

This weekend the Premiership takes a break while clubs play in the second round of the Scottish League Cup. In the meantime, perhaps the unfortunate reality is that if Rangers set off at their fastest pace in more than half a century it was almost inevitable that Celtic at this stage would be trailing in their wake.