Kevin Pullein: free football betting tips & analysis from the Soccer Boffin

Best bet

Under 3.5 Asian total cards in Leicester v Brighton
1pt 1.9 bet365

Bet on a low number of cards in Sunday's Premier League game between Leicester and Brighton. Back under 3.5 Asian total cards at decimal odds of 1.9 – equivalent to fractional odds of 9-10 – with bet365. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards.

There might not be a lot of margin in the price but there could be some.

Decimal odds of 1.9 imply less than a 53 per cent chance of a payout. In the Premier League this Millennium more than 55 per cent of games have produced fewer than 3.5 cards. Leicester v Brighton, arguably, is fairly typical of Premier League games in terms of the likely balance of play.

In this fixture last season referee Lee Mason showed four cards. And this season many Leicester games and Brighton games have featured four cards or more. Arguably, though, those high makeups were accidental – that is to say, the sort of things that with the best will in the world will happen from time to time because any well-intentioned challenge can be mistimed.

Brighton had a player sent off late in away games at Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Newcastle, and in each of those games there were at least three yellows so the Asian total cards makeup was always above 3.5. Only in their other two road games was it below 3.5.

Likewise, only two of Leicester’s five home games have finished with fewer than 3.5 cards. There were higher totals for the visits of Aston Villa, West Ham and Wolves.

Referee Martin Atkinson is good and hugely experienced. He has officiated at more than 400 top-flight games across 17 seasons. He does not show a card unless it is necessary, but when it is necessary he does reach for his pocket. He will referee this game in the way that it requires.

It may require more than 3.5 cards, because a lot of games do, just because of how play develops and split-second differences in the execution of tackles. But the chance that Atkinson will show fewer than 3.5 cards at the King Power may be at least a little better than bet365’s odds suggest.

Thought for the week

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta said: “You look at all the stats, they’re in our favour, but at the end of the day it’s about putting the ball in the box”.

He was speaking last Sunday after Arsenal had lost 2-0 at Tottenham. Arsenal had attempted 44 crosses, the most by any team in the Premier League this season.

Some have pointed out rightly that crossing is an inefficient way of trying to score goals. I have said the same thing myself before.

Over three seasons in the Champions League, for example, 66 crosses were sent over for every goal scored. Those were seasons 2015-16 to 2017-18, the only ones for which Uefa have published such data.

On the other hand, most ways of trying to score goals are inefficient. Football is a game mostly of small returns. Just one other example: over different timescales in different competitions it has taken something in the region of 45 corners to get a goal.

And if a team find they cannot move the ball forward anywhere else than down the wings – as Arsenal did at Tottenham – what else are they to do other than send in cross after cross and hope against hope that one of them happens to lead to a goal?

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