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Betis 0 Asian handicap cards
1pt 1.6 bet365

Betis may be more likely than bet365 estimate to receive most cards in their La Liga game at Real Madrid.

Back Betis 0 Asian handicap cards at decimal odds of 1.6, equivalent to the fractional price of 6-10. Each yellow will count as one and each red as two. If Betis’s total is highest the bet will win, if both totals are the same stakes will be refunded, and if Madrid’s total is highest the bet will lose.

As a general rule, cards vary in an inverse relationship to goals. That is to say, the less likely a team are to score most goals the more likely they are to receive most cards.

This is because cards are an occasional consequence of defending. Nearly all cards are shown for a genuine attempt to win the ball that went wrong. The more defending a team do the more often they will be prone to making misjudged challenges. And the less likely they are to score most goals the more defending they are likely to do.

Madrid are second in La Liga, three points behind leaders Atletico but with a superior head-to-head record. Betis – managed by former Madrid boss Manuel Pellegrini – are sixth in La Liga, in the last of the Europa League places and 21 points behind Madrid.

In recent seasons Madrid’s payroll has been at least seven times the size of Betis’s. They should have a better team, and usually they do. Result-related odds for today’s match imply something like a 64 per cent chance of a home win, a 22 per cent chance of a draw and a 14 per cent chance of an away win.

In a typical La Liga game with similar result expectations, arguably, fair odds about the away team 0 Asian handicap cards should be shorter than 1.6. And there does not appear to be anything particular unusual in the cards records this season of Madrid or Betis.

Madrid have a big game on Tuesday – a Champions League semi-final first leg against Chelsea. If their attention wanders today the game could turn against them, and they could pick up cards trying to pull it round. But they will still have hopes of winning La Liga, so they should be properly focused. It does seem possible that the chance of Betis receiving most cards has been underestimated by bet365.

Thought for the week

Eight games over ten days will determine whether English football is said to be the best or only flattering to deceive.

The European Super League is off and eyes are back on the Champions League and Europa League.

There are four English teams in the semi-finals and they were kept apart in the draws. The two-legged ties will be played between next Tuesday and the following Thursday. There could be an all-English Champions League final and an all-English Europa League final.

There was two seasons ago. Then last season there were no English finalists. And only one semi-finalist, in the Europa League.

This season the number of English finalists could be nought, one, two, three or four. It might be best to form your own idea of the strength of English football before you know what the number is. Whatever it is, there will probably be an over-reaction to it.

There were three English Champions League semi-finalists in 2007, 2008 and 2009. Then no more than one in any of the next nine years, and in four of those there were none. There were two English Europa League semi-finalists in 2010. Then no more than one in any of the next eight years, and in four of those there were none.

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