Kevin Pullein: free football betting tips & analysis from the Soccer Boffin

Best bet

Under six Asian total cards in Sevilla v Celta
1pt 2.0 bet365

Bet on a low number of cards in La Liga when Sevilla play Celta. Bet365 offer decimal odds of 2.0 – equivalent to the fractional price of evens – for under six Asian total cards.

Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If the makeup is lower than six the bet will win, if it is six stakes will be refunded and if it is higher than six the bet will lose.

This is a game in which there could be a lot of cards – but even so the price for unders may be too big.

The main reason for fearing there could be a large number of cards is Celta. Since the start of last season Celta’s La Liga games have averaged 6.5 cards. In only 15 games was the make-up lower than six, in nine games it was six and in 23 games it was higher than six. So under six has come up a lot less often than over six.

Today Celta will have a new coach – Eduardo Coudet, who played for them briefly early in the Millennium. Coudet was successful as coach of Internacional in Brazil, and previously in his homeland of Argentina with Racing and Rosario Central. Though Coudet oversaw good results in his year with Internacional the players provoked a higher than average number of yellow and red cards.

And Sevilla’s La Liga games this season have also produced a higher than usual number of cards. Results have not been as impressive as they normally are and card counts have risen.

So there are a lot of reasons for worrying that there could be another high make-up today when Sevilla play Celta. In any market, though, all outcomes are possible. And under six cards may still be more likely than over six cards.

Referee Cesar Soto Grado was promoted to La Liga at the start of last season and his card counts have been fairly middle of the range. He should not influence expectations one way or the other.

Celta’s games, particularly, have generated high numbers of cards. Sooner or later, though, there will be more low make-ups. That process may not start today, but the chance that it will may be better than the odds anticipate.

Thought for the week

Yesterday I wrote about Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s up and down results as Manchester United manager. There have been times in the last couple of years when United seemed invincible, and times when they seemed the opposite – that is, vincible. And several flips from one to the other. What might happen over the rest of this season?

My ratings incorporate factors other than past results. They anticipate that in the Premier League United will average 1.9 points per game. Sporting Index’s points spreads also anticipates 1.9 points per game. So maybe that is not an unreasonable figure.

What I find interesting is that so far, in all of his time as United manager, Solskjaer has averaged 1.8 points per game – 116 points from 66 games. I am not alone in thinking that in future they might do slightly better, but not much.

Perhaps a good way to think about United, then, is not that they will get back to their best and stay there, or that they will return to their worst and stay there, but that overall their results will be somewhere in between.

Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits.

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport