Kevin Pullein: everything at stake for Villa, Watford and Bournemouth

Two out of Aston Villa, Watford and Bournemouth will be relegated from the Premier League on Sunday. Are teams who need to win on the last day of a season more likely to? And if so, by how much?

Villa play at West Ham, Watford at Arsenal, Bournemouth at Everton. Villa could lose and stay up, Bournemouth could win and go down. But all three will go into their game feeling they need to win.

I looked back over the last days of the past 22 Premier League seasons to find other teams who would have felt the same way. There were 23 of them who faced opponents with nothing to play for. Like Villa, Watford and Bournemouth.

Collectively this season Villa, Watford and Bournemouth have won 23 per cent of their Premier League games – individually the figures are 24 per cent for Villa, 22 per cent for Watford and Bournemouth.

The teams in my sample from previous seasons had won 23 per cent of their games before the last day. On the last day four out of 12 won away – 33 per cent – and five out of 11 won at home – 45 per cent. Overall the win-rate was nine out of 23 – 39 per cent. So they won more often than before.

On that point I have changed my mind over the years as I have been able to gather more evidence. I used to think the need-to-win factor was overrated. My Premier League sample is still small but it is broadly consistent with a slightly larger sample from final days in the EFL.

Premier League teams who would or could have avoided relegation with a win on the last day of a season won as often as they lost – nine times out of 23. In other words, they performed like mid-table teams. Presumably they gave everything while their opponents with nothing to play for understandably did not give everything. But in another sense, too, these results may be explicable.

Many teams who are relegated are teams who in an alternative universe could have finished mid-table. In this universe things went against them. Whoever stays up out of Villa, Watford and Bournemouth could finish in mid-table next season. Experience tells us this.

It also tells us that whoever goes down probably will not come straight back. Careers will be touched by what happens in these games.

Urgency shows in shot and corner counts

A need to win on the last day of a season is discernible in general play. We can see it if we look at other stats from the games of those teams who would or could have avoided relegation if they scored most goals and gained all three points from games against opponents who had nothing to play for.

Earlier in the season they had taken 45 per cent of the shots in their games. On the final day they took 51 per cent.

The push forward was visible even more clearly in corners stats. In previous games they had taken 46 per cent of all corners. On the final day they took 59 per cent.

Because the result went their way more often than before they committed fewer fouls than before – 49 per cent of the total on the last day, 51 per cent of the total in other games. And because their opponents did not have anything to play for they did not become as frustrated as they might have done in different circumstances.

Consequently total bookings make-ups dropped – to an average of 32 points on the final day from 37 on previous days in markets where each yellow counts as ten and each red as 25. The relegation-threatened teams averaged 17 points on the final day, down from 19 on previous days.

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