Italy v England predictions: Three Lions can atone for their sloppy summer

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Italy v England in the Nations League on Friday.

Where to watch

Channel 4, 7.45pm Friday

Best bet

England draw no bet
2pts 4-5 general

Team news

Italy
Marco Verratti, Matteo Politano and Lorenzo Pellegrini have withdrawn through injury.

England
Kalvin Phillips (shoulder) and Jordan Pickford (thigh) miss out and John Stones is suspended but Jordan Henderson has joined up with Gareth Southgate's squad.

Match preview

England's hopes of reaching the Nations League finals are in tatters after their failure to win any of four summer fixtures, but they can at least give themselves hope of avoiding relegation by defeating their Euro 2020 final conquerors Italy in Milan.

Dropping out of the top tier of the Nations League would be a blow to England's pride, but the Three Lions' main motivation is to raise morale before the 2022 World Cup which kicks off in Qatar in only 58 days.

Gareth Southgate has enjoyed lots of support since taking the reins six years ago but his team were roundly criticised for their limp efforts in June, which culminated in a dreadful 4-0 loss at home to Hungary.

The trip to Italy is one of just two more opportunities for Southgate to select a team before he names his final 26-man World Cup squad, and he will want to use the games to draw a line under the summer's sub-par performances.

Aside from the selection of Ivan Toney, Southgate's squad does not feature any major surprises.

Southgate has the tools to switch to a back three with Eric Dier back in the fold, but, irrespective of formations, he will be seeking a huge improvements in intent, energy and levels of concentration.

There were excuses for England's players in June as the games took place soon after the end of a gruelling domestic season, but that no longer applies and a much better performance should be anticipated.

England should present Italy with a tougher challenge than on June 11, when the Azzurri held the Three Lions to a 0-0 draw at Molineux.

The Italians are three points better off than England in the group, but they lost 5-2 away to Germany in their latest Nations League outing and won't be at full strength on Friday with Marco Verratti, Lorenzo Pellegrini and Matteo Politano injured.

The European champions have no World Cup to prepare for and Roberto Mancini has selected a slightly experimental squad with 13 of his players capped fewer than five times.

Vastly experienced centre-back Leonardo Bonucci will marshall the defence while Lazio centre-forward Ciro Immobile should lead the line, but everybody else in the squad has been capped fewer than 50 times and the team's general lack of experience could be exposed by England, who look decent value to take all three points at the San Siro.

Key stat

Italy have won just two of their last nine matches.

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