How will the Premier League season unfold for Arsenal and their title rivals?

Arsenal are top of the Premier League after half the season. Will they be there when it ends?

They have a passionate manager and young players who have become one of the better teams in the Premier League but this is the first time they have challenged for the title.

The closest likeness to them I can see in previous seasons is Newcastle in 1995-96.

Businessman Sir John Hall had bought Newcastle a few seasons before and appointed an inexperienced but passionate manager in Kevin Keegan. Newcastle won the Championship, then called the First Division in 1992-93, and then established themselves among the best teams in the Premier League with consecutive top-six finishes. Their first tilt at the title, though, came in 1995-96. Arguably they had some higher-profile players: David Ginola, Peter Beardsley, Les Ferdinand.

Newcastle won 45 points from their first 19 games then 33 points from their second 19 games. They finished with a total of 78 points having dropped into second place.

Arsenal have 47 points after 18 games. With a fixture in hand on most Premier League teams they do not complete their first half of the season until Sunday, at home but against tough opponents in Manchester United. They are top of the league now and whatever happens they will be top of the league then.

Arsenal have done better than Newcastle over the first half of the season and I think it is reasonable to expect more from them over the second half as well. These judgements are subjective, of course. But I reckon Arsenal could reach 85 points.

Would that be enough to win the title? It depends on what their closest challengers do.

Manchester City completed the first half of their season last night. They have done well, but not quite as well as in the first half of most other recent seasons. The best comparisons, I think, are 2019-20 and 2020-21. Then City accumulated 38 and 41 points from their first 19 games followed by 43 and 45 points from their second 19 games. Once they were champions, once they were runners-up.

Over any half of recent seasons City have averaged in the mid 40s for points. I reckon that over the second half of this season they could add another 44 points. Those would take them close to the total I have for Arsenal.

Manchester United have 39 points after 19 games. Fans hope Erik ten Hag will be different from all other United managers since the multiple trophy-winning Sir Alex Ferguson. I wonder, though, whether this season might be like two seasons ago under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. Then United gained 40 points from their first 19 games but only 34 points from their second 19 games.

Or a couple of Arsenal seasons. In 2009-10 Arsenal acquired 41 points from their first 19 games and 34 points from their second 19 games. In 2016-17 they acquired 40 points from their first 19 games and 35 points from their second 19 games.

Clubs with 39 points or thereabouts after half a season tend to be big clubs, a category that includes United and Arsenal. Over the second half of the season they tend to average close to what I think is a reasonable suggestion for the second half of this season for United: 34 points. Their total would be 73 points.

Newcastle have 38 points after 19 games. It is hard to propose historical parallels for them because they are now a club like they have never been before. Maybe the best comparison will turn out to be 2001-02. Under the management of Sir Bobby Robson Newcastle gained 39 points from their first 19 games then 32 points from their second 19 games. I am going to suggest the same for them in the second half of this season. It would give them a total of 70 points.

Just over a year Newcastle were taken over by the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund. I cannot think of a club with access to greater riches. These have started to flow into the team but will flow faster and faster. Over any half of future seasons, reasonable expectations for Newcastle will be higher than 32 points. They should become one of the most successful teams in the world. That is football.

What about teams who are not in the running for the title but did have a good first half to the season?

At the start of the season did anyone predict that halfway through the order of the west London teams would be Fulham, Brentford, Chelsea? Fulham are newly promoted, Brentford in only their second season in the Premier League. Today Fulham are sixth, Brentford eighth, Chelsea tenth. Brentford have 29 points from 19 games, Fulham two points more having played one game more.

The closest likenesses I can see in previous seasons are Birmingham in 2009-10 and Burnley in 2017-18. Birmingham then were a yo-yo club, as Fulham have been in recent seasons. Burnley were playing a second consecutive season in the Premier League.

In the first half of those seasons Burnley won 32 points and Birmingham won 29 points. In the second half Burnley won 22 points and Birmingham won 21 points. To me, something similar in the second half of this season seems a plausible prospect for Fulham and Brentford. I have both finishing on 51 points.

New boys Nottingham Forest have not done as well as Fulham, but they still have 20 points from 19 games, which puts them in 13th place – five places and five points above the relegation line. That is good for any newly promoted team.

I see similarities with newly promoted Sheffield United in 2006-07. They gained 20 points from their first 19 games and 18 points from their second 19 games. I envisage something similar from Forest. And that could also be good. Sheffield United were relegated with 38 points, but most teams with a total in the high 30s do not go down.

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