How will home advantage affect Birmingham City's FA Cup clash against Coventry?

What influences home advantage?

Maybe we should start with something easier like learning Chinese Mandarin because there appears to be no definite answer to a question which sports bettors have always asked.

Is it the warm feeling of being in a familiar environment - the same drive, same spot in the dressing room, same routine? Perhaps it is knowing every blade of grass, or the roar of the crowd to be used for inspiration. Maybe it's the noise which influences a referee or maybe it is all of the above, or none of the things mentioned and it's all in the mind of the travelling opponents?

Whatever the answer - and in my opinion it's tiny bits of lots of things - that will be tested in the FA Cup fourth-round tie between Coventry and Birmingham at St Andrew's - the temporary home of the Sky Blues and the permanent home of the Blues.

Sky Bet League One outfit Coventry have been sensational at the venue this season (played 18, won 11, drawn six, lost one) and have a better record there than Championship side Birmingham (P15, W6, D3, L6).

The clubs have agreed a near 50-50 ticket split for a unique game which has an almost local derby feel to it - and will have been a tricky match to price up.

Paddy Power's football trader Jason Murphy said: "I relish pricing up these type of games. The more difficult it is, the more inefficient the market and therefore the bigger potential for value.

"FA Cup matches are difficult anyway but I would say there is 0.70 of a goal difference between League One and the Championship. However, Birmingham are below average and Coventry above average, so I reckon on a neutral venue there is about 0.50 difference which if both teams are full-strength and motivated would see prices of 11-10 Birmingham and 5-2 Coventry.

"Normal home advantage for a League One side is 0.25 of a goal but with the ticket split 50:50 I think we can knock it back to 0.125. You can make tiny adjustments for Birmingham having to use a different changing room and the away one possibly not being as good, but they know the pitch.

"I'm happy with 0.125, which taken away from 0.50 leaves 0.375 and prices of 6-5 Birmingham, 9-4 Coventry. If the Blues were at home I would be making them 0.775 favourites, which is 5-6 because they are half a goal better, Championship home advantage is 0.3, minus a little bit for the Sky Blues being familiar with the surroundings."

Follow us on Twitter

Like us on Facebook