England can claim Croatia scalp in crunch Nations League clash

Nations League
Sky Sports Football/Main Event, 2pm Sunday

Revenge will be in the air for England after their defeat to Croatia in this year's World Cup semi-final but there is much more than just payback on the agenda in this riveting Nations League decider at Wembley with the Three Lions fancied to claim a crucial victory.

None of the positions are yet settled in League A Group 4, but whoever wins this match will go through to next summer's knockout stage, while current leaders Spain would progress to the last four if it is a draw.

A goalless draw would relegate Croatia to the second tier while a score draw would demote England.

The risk and reward of playing to win is obvious given the consequences of relegation alongside Germany - yes, Germany - Iceland and Poland are nowhere near as dire as dropping out of the Premier League.

Croatia kept themselves alive with a thrilling 3-2 win over Spain on Thursday. Tin Jedvaj's last-gasp goal sparked wild scenes of celebration in a competition Jurgen Klopp has called "senseless."

The players clearly care, as do the fans. Wembley is sold out and the capacity crowd can carry England over the line with Gareth Southgate's team having been the superior side in last month's 0-0 reverse fixture.

That game was played in an empty stadium. Harry Kane and Eric Dier hit the bar, while Marcus Rashford passed up two golden opportunities, but those chances were taken a few nights later as England's young side came of age in the 3-2 win over Spain.

Croatia deserved their semi-final success over England in Russia, although the key difference now, apart from home advantage, is that tournament was just the beginning for Southgate's youngsters whereas it was the last-chance saloon for Zlatko Dalic's beaten finalists.

• Didi Hamann: England are an absolute maximum bet against Croatia

Goalkeeper Danijel Subasic, whose miraculous save from Kane in the semi-final kept Croatia just one behind at the break, has retired from international football, just like extra-time match-winner Mario Mandzukic.

Barcelona midfielder Ivan Rakitic, who had earlier equalised in the semi-final, is ruled out through injury, piling even more pressure on the shoulders of Luka Modric.

It will also be interesting to see whether Croatia can go to the well again having played such an intense match on Thursday, when England were involved in a virtual testimonial for Wayne Rooney against the USA.

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There is still a danger from Ante Rebic, Ivan Perisic and Andrej Kramaric, although that is more than matched by the vibrancy of England's front three of Kane, Rashford and Raheem Sterling.

Southgate's switch to a 4-3-3 should mean England are not as overrun as they were in Moscow and playing Kyle Walker in his normal right-back position rather than as a makeshift centre-back will help the Three Lions defensively.

The same is also true on the opposite flank where Luke Shaw is a better option than Ashley Young.

Maybe England fans were right after all. Football could be coming home, but in the Nations League rather than the World Cup.

Recommendation
England
1pt 17-20 general

Bet on this game at Soccerbase.com

Team news
England
Kieran Trippier, Harry Maguire and Danny Welbeck are injured.

Croatia
Ivan Rakitic has joined left-backs Ivan Strinic and Josip Pivaric in being ruled out through injury.

Key stat
Croatia have failed to score in four of their last five competitive away matches.

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