EFL Cup final: Aston Villa v Manchester City free betting tip and preview

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Aston Villa v Manchester City in the EFL Cup final.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Football & Main Event, 4.30pm Sunday

Best bet

Manchester City to be leading after 30 minutes
1pt 20-21 BoyleSports
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Team news

Aston Villa
Tom Heaton and Wesley are out while John McGinn and Keinan Davis are doubts. Danny Drinkwater is cup-tied.

Manchester City
Aymeric Laporte faces a month on the sidelines through injury. Leroy Sane is a doubt as he returns from a lengthy absence.

Match preview

The last time Manchester City rocked up at Wembley for a domestic cup final they smashed six past helpless Watford to lift the FA Cup.

The last time Manchester City took on Aston Villa they also scored six. That was in the Premier League just seven weeks ago.

You can’t say Dean Smith’s men haven’t been warned.

Jack Grealish has insisted that Villa’s magnificent fans, the same diehard supporters who roared their team to playoff glory on Wembley's hallowed turf last May, will be a key factor in lifting the Villans to one of the more unlikely League Cup final triumphs.

Unlikely is the key word, given match odds of 20-1 about the underdogs.

But the prospect of their defence going up against City’s attack just days after Pep Guardiola's men ran out winners at Real Madrid should give punters no great desire to ignore the obvious. City's class should prevail.

Clearly there aren’t many eye-catching prices around if you want to get with City but backing them to be ahead after half an hour, something they have managed nine times in the Premier League this term including in that 6-1 romp at Villa Park, is a wager to consider.

City will likely boss the ball from the start, probing constantly and there should be little coming back from Villa if they want to stay in the tie.

Smith has yet to settle on a system or the personnel to produce solid defensive efforts this term and they are going to be under the cosh.

Villa have conceded 18.2 shots per game, by some distance the worst record in the Premier League, and any degree of accuracy from Sergio Aguero and company will surely lead to a breakthrough.

City have scored 21 goals in the first half-hour of league matches this term - the most of any top-flight side.

Villa haven’t kept a clean sheet in 11 games, have lost three in a row, have been defeated 9-1 on aggregate by City this season and have let in 52 goals, more than any other Premier League outfit.

Last week Smith fumed that some of his team had played their way out of the cup final following an abject effort at Southampton where they were flattered by a 2-0 loss. It was an idle threat since the Villa gaffer isn’t exactly spoiled for choice.

You might expect a positive response from a team who can put their relegation struggles behind them for a weekend and focus instead on landing the club’s first trophy in 24 years.

However, Manchester City have lost only one of their last 17 cup ties and have scored at least two goals in nine of their last 12 matches away from the Etihad. Expect them to win the cup for a third successive year and win it well.