What we can learn from the past about the chance of winning the Champions League

Let us start at the beginning. There are 32 teams in the Champions League. Without any more information the best estimate we could give would be that each of them has the same chance of winning: one out of 32.

We do have more information, though. And we can use it to give forecasts that are less uniform and more helpful.

The Champions League has followed the same format since season 2003-04. Eighteen seasons have been completed and a 19th season is about to start.

Of the 18 previous winners, eight came from Spain, five from England, two from Germany, another two from Italy and one from Portugal.

To evaluate the achievements of teams from those countries we need to know not only how many won but also how many entered. There were 71 entrants from Spain, 72 from England, 59 from Germany, another 59 from Italy, 37 from Portugal.

So the win-rate was 11 per cent for teams from Spain, seven per cent for teams from England and three per cent for teams from Germany, Italy and Portugal.

What else do we know?

Every Spanish win was in the name of Real Madrid or Barcelona, each German win was in the name of Bayern Munich. They are the elite clubs of their countries. Barcelona, in particular, and Real Madrid have money troubles at the moment, and may not do as well for a while. But until now they almost always qualified for the Champions League by finishing first or second in their national league.

The win-rate in the Champions League for teams who qualified by finishing in the top two of their national league was 19 per cent for the Spanish La Liga, six per cent for the German Bundesliga and Italian Serie A, three per cent for the Portuguese Primeira Liga.

The win-rate in the Champions League for teams who qualified after finishing lower than second in their national league was three per cent for La Liga and zero for the Bundesliga, Serie A and Primeira Liga.

So teams from those countries who had done better the previous season in their national league then did better in the Champions League.

Not so with the English Premier League. The success rate in the Champions League was six per cent for teams who had finished first or second in the Premier League and eight per cent for teams who had finished lower than second in the Premier League.

There are more teams in the elite of English football, and more members of it have proved themselves capable of winning the Champions League. Chelsea won the Champions last season having finished fourth in the Premier League two seasons ago. Liverpool won the Champions League in 2019 and 2005 having finished fourth in the Premier League the years before.

No team from outside of Spain, England, Germany, Italy and Portugal won the Champions League in the past 18 seasons. Twenty-seven other countries supplied at least one entrant, but none of them supplied a winner.

This does not mean that none of them can supply a winner. The past does not give us a precise percentage chance for each possibility in the future. What it can do is give us a broad sense of prospects – what things may be more likely than others, and whether they are a little more likely or a lot. Any team in the Champions League this season can win, but most of them are unlikely to.

The bookmakers’ favourites, you will have noticed, are PSG from France, one of the countries that did not provide a winner in the past 18 seasons. PSG are favourites because they are a moneybags club who have added Lionel Messi to a forward line that already included Neymar and Kylian Mbappe.

Although it is hard to put into numbers, there did seem to be a tendency for winners to be teams who had done well in the not too distant past – if not as winners then as runners-up, semi-finalists or quarter-finalists. There was a sense of Champions League success being something a team can build up to. PSG were runners-up two seasons ago and semi-finalists last season.

Twenty-six other countries were represented in the Champions League in the past 18 seasons without celebrating a winner. This does not mean that teams from those countries were all of the same standard. There were differences between them. It is just that even the best of them were not good enough to win.

To form an impression of the relative merits of teams from those countries, and how well they did in groups, we need something else – qualification-rates from groups.

As you might have guessed, the countries whose teams qualified from groups most often were those already mentioned.

The qualification-rate from groups was 86 per cent for teams from England, 82 per cent from Spain, 75 per cent from Italy, 73 per cent from Germany, 58 per cent from France and 46 per cent from Portugal. Here England did better than Spain, reflecting its greater strength in depth.

Further down the list we get to Switzerland, with a qualification-rate from groups of 30 per cent, followed by Scotland 29 per cent, Netherlands 26 per cent, Ukraine 21 per cent, Cyprus and Turkey 20 per cent, Russia 19 per cent, Greece 18 per cent, Denmark 14 per cent, Czech Republic 13 per cent and Belgium six per cent. For all other countries the qualification-rate from groups was zero.

This season Sheriff Tiraspol will be the first team from Moldova to participate in the Champions League group stage. They may be better or more fortunate than those who tried to get there before. In preliminary rounds they beat Dinamo Zagreb of Croatia and Red Star Belgrade of Serbia. There is not a lot more that we can say about them. We have reached the end.

Why the trophy could be presented to Manchester United

I think that this season the prospect of a Spanish win may be lower than it used to be, and the prospect of a win for some other countries, including England, therefore higher.

Lionel Messi is the best player I have seen. But he is 34 now. PSG should be there or thereabouts, but I do not feel their odds underestimate them.

Whose might? I suggest Manchester United’s. Not because returning Ronaldo scored two goals at the weekend. He is 36 now. Just because of the squad even without him. United are one of several teams who would not surprise me if they did win, and for them I feel there is the best trade-off between the prospect and the price.

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