Sporting v Manchester City predictions: Portuguese hosts can make their mark

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for the Champions League last-16 first leg between Sporting and Manchester City on Tuesday.

Where to watch

BT Sport 2, 8pm Tuesday

Best bet

First Sporting goal before 79:00 mins
1pt 11-10 bet365

Over 10.5 corners
1pt 11-10 bet365

Team news

Sporting
Star forward Pedro Goncalves returned to training on Monday after a thigh strain.

Manchester City
Kyle Walker is suspended. Jack Grealish, Gabriel Jesus and Cole Palmer are out.

Match preview

Pep Guardiola's latest quest to guide Manchester City to Champions League glory begins with a trip to Portugal and a chance to make it third time lucky.

Each of City's last two bids for European gold have ended in Portugal, in Porto last May against Chelsea in the final and nine months earlier in neutral Lisbon against Lyon in the last eight of the 2019-20 tournament.

In between those two matches they also visited Porto in a group game, drawing 0-0, so City would feel they are overdue a win in this corner of Iberia.

And at odds of around 2-7 City looks set to get some sort of redemption by taking care of Sporting Lisbon at the Estadio Jose Alvalade, where that disaster against Lyon unfolded.

Sporting, the reigning Portuguese champions and a vibrant side under head coach Ruben Amorim, to a man rate themselves massive outsiders for this challenge against the tournament favourites, and that's being echoed by their home media.

And given what City are doing domestically in a far tougher competition than the Primeira Liga, this does look like it should yield a routine win for the Englishmen.

Guardiola made changes galore for Saturday's trip to Norwich, alterations that were pretty much seamless as they strolled to a 4-0 win powered by a Raheem Sterling hat-trick.

Kevin de Bruyne, Rodri, Joao Cancelo and Aymeric Laporte will return after a rest as should John Stones in place of the suspended Kyle Walker, to ensure City are at almost full-strength and in ideal shape. And, of course, in dazzling form.

They've played 12 matches since losing a dead rubber in Leipzig in December, and won 11 of them, scoring 34 goals in the process.

Sporting's back three, organised by one-time Liverpool rearguarder Sebastian Coates, will face the sternest of examinations and the evidence from the group stage is that they can be exposed. Of the 16 teams who made it through the group stage none conceded more goals than the Lions, who leaked 12 in their six matches, nine of which were scored by Ajax.

That they pipped Dortmund for second, however, is more than creditable and they were unbeaten domestically until the turn of the year. They have, though, lost twice since and were involved in an extraordinary dust-up with Porto on Friday night which saw four goals (it ended 2-2) and five red cards.

What Sporting do have is attacking potential, none more dangerous than City target Pedro Goncalves, also known as Pote, who scored four goals in the group stage.

They also have pace and there's no Walker in the City defence. Sporting can score goals – they mustered 14 in the group phase, eight at home. They are odds-against to hit the City net before the 79th minute mark and that looks a decent price. Let's not forget, City conceded in all six group matches.

Over 10.5 corners is worth considering, too. City average 7.2 per game in the competition to date, Sporting 4.2, so the stats are in our favour.

Key stat

Sporting (12) and City (ten) conceded the most goals of the 16 qualifiers.

Inside info

Sporting

Penalty taker Pablo Sarabia/Pedro Goncalves
Free-kick wizard Pedro Goncalves
Set-piece aerial threat Sebastian Coates
Card magnet Goncalo Inacio

Manchester City

Penalty taker Riyad Mahrez/Raheem Sterling
Free-kick wizardRiyad Mahrez/Kevin De Bruyne
Set-piece aerial threatAymeric Laporte
Card magnetRuben Dias/Aymeric Laporte

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