Porto v Chelsea predictions: Blues can seize initiative in quarter-final tie

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Porto v Chelsea in the Champions League on Wednesday.

Where to watch

BT Sport 2, 8pm Wednesday

Best bet

Chelsea to win to nil
1pt 7-4 Betfair, Betfred

Team news

Porto
Sergio Oliveira and Mehdi Taremi are suspended.

Chelsea
Tammy Abraham (ankle) and N'Golo Kante (hamstring) are back in the squad and Antonio Rudiger will return to the starting line-up.

Match preview

Chelsea's honeymoon period under Tomas Tuchel came to an abrupt end with an astonishing 5-2 home loss to West Brom on Sunday but the Blues can respond with a Champions League victory against Porto in Seville.

The Premier League top-four tussle is looking more interesting than Chelsea might have hoped for, but the Londoners have made excellent progress under Tuchel, who has lifted them from ninth to fourth.

Time will tell whether or not the loss to West Brom was a momentary aberration or a pivotal moment in the campaign.

However, it was totally out of character with what had gone before with Chelsea having recorded clean sheets in each of their previous seven matches, including both legs of their Champions League last-16 clash against Atletico Madrid.

Chelsea's tie against Atleti looked tough on paper but Tuchel's side showed quality and maturity to come through with a 3-0 aggregate success and they were rewarded with a near perfect quarter-final and semi-final draw.

Of the eight quarter-finalists, Porto are only team ranked lower than Chelsea on Uefa coefficients and they have not got past the last eight since Jose Mourinho led them to glory in 2003-04.

They have lost their last three Champions League quarter-finals and their most recent experience of the last eight saw them suffer a 6-1 aggregate loss to Liverpool in April 2019.

Sergio Conceicao's side are seven points behind leaders Sporting in the Portuguese top flight, although much of the damage was done in the opening six games of the season when they suffered their only two league defeats.

They haven't lost a league match since October and showed immense resilience to come through their Champions League round-of-16 clash against Juventus on the away-goals rule.

Midfielder Sergio Oliveira was their two-goal hero in the 3-2 second-leg defeat in Turin which made the aggregate score 4-4 and his decisive 115th-minute goal came when Porto were down to ten men.

But Oliveira, their top league scorer with 12 goals, was also booked against Juventus, triggering a one-match ban.

Porto's second-top scorer, Mehdi Taremi, is also suspended, so the goalscoring burden will fall largely on the shoulders on Malian centre-forward Moussa Marega, who is having a quiet season with two goals in the Champions League and six in the league.

Given their reduced attacking options, Conceicao might feel inclined to adopt a cautious approach to try to stay in contention for next Tuesday's second leg, when Oliveira and Taremi will be available.

The onus is on Chelsea to do most of the attacking and they should be able to make the breakthrough.

Chelsea haven't scored more than twice in a game since Frank Lampard's departure, but they have found the net in 12 of those 15 games and one goal may be sufficient to establish a first-leg advantage.

Key stat

Chelsea have kept clean sheets in seven of their last eight games.

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