Napoli v Milan predictions, betting tips and odds

Where to watch Napoli v Milan

BT Sport 2, 8pm Tuesday

Best bet

Napoli to qualify
1pt 11-10 general

Over 6.5 Napoli corners
2pts 10-11 bet365

Napoli v Milan odds

Napoli 7-10
Milan 17-4
Draw 13-5

Odds correct at time of publishing

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Napoli v Milan team news

Napoli
Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa and Min-Jae Kim are suspended but leading scorer Victor Osimhen is likely to be involved. Giovanni Simeone misses out through injury.

Milan
The visitors are likely to be unchanged from last week's first-leg win with Zlatan Ibrahimovic their only absentee. Pierre Kalulu is back in contention.

Napoli v Milan predictions

Napoli and Milan meet for the third time in just two weeks at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium on Tuesday night, but unlike the previous two encounters, the Neapolitans can find the winning formula this time.

Napoli have been a class apart in Serie A this season but suffered only their third defeat of the league campaign when swatted aside 4-0 at home by Milan at the beginning of April.

The Italian champions-in-waiting were again mastered by Milan in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final at the San Siro last week, losing 1-0 courtesy of Ismael Bennacer's first-half strike. However, the narrow margin of defeat means that it is still all to play for heading to Naples.

Despite losing the first leg, Napoli will be buoyed by the fact that they restricted Milan to just two shots on target and edged the possession stats last week. They also recorded a higher expected-goals figure - 1.55 to Milan's 1.29 - and racked up ten corners.

The defeat did come at some cost, though, as Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa was sent off and defender Min-jae Kim was booked for dissent in a frustrating second period, meaning both are suspended for Tuesday's return leg.

But the big difference for Napoli on Tuesday will be the availability of star striker Victor Osimhen, who was introduced from the bench for a 17-minute cameo in Saturday’s goalless draw at home to Verona.

That was Osimhen’s first appearance since the middle of March when he took his seasonal tally to 25 goals from just 30 appearances in a 4-0 rout of Torino.

The Nigerian international missed both of the recent defeats to Milan and his return may well swing the quarter-final in Napoli’s favour.

Milan have plenty of attacking quality themselves and Napoli must be particularly wary of the lively Rafael Leao and the aerial threat posed by seasoned Frenchman Olivier Giroud.

But Napoli are 22 points better off than Milan in Serie A and have won all four of their home matches in the Champions League this term, so they should be confident that they can still qualify for the last four despite last week's defeat.

Luciano Spalletti’s men have beaten Liverpool, Ajax, Rangers and Eintracht Frankfurt at home in Europe this season, scoring at least three times on each occasion, so clearly boast the necessary firepower to turn the tie around.

With Milan likely to adopt a more cautious approach, backing Napoli to have at least seven corners looks another worthwhile wager. The hosts, who like to play with width, have had exactly ten corners in each of this month’s losses to the Rossoneri.

Key stat

Milan have won just three of their last 12 away games.

Probable teams

Napoli (4-3-3): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Rui, Olivera; Ndombele, Lobotka, Zielinski; Lozano, Osimhen, Kvaratskhelia.
Subs: Jesus, Bereszynski, Ostigard, Politano, Raspadori, Elmas, Zerbin, Gaetano, Gollini.

Milan (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Hernandez; Krunic, Tonali; Diaz, Bennacer, Leao; Giroud.
Subs: Thiaw, Ballo, Florenzi, De Ketelaere, Saelemaekers, Pobega, Rebic, Origi, Messias, Kalulu.