Milan v Napoli predictions, betting tips and odds

Where to watch Milan v Napoli

BT Sport 2, 8pm Wednesday

Best bet

Draw
1pt 23-10 BoyleSports

Milan v Napoli odds

Milan 9-5
Napoli 17-10
Draw 23-10

Odds correct at time of publishing

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Milan v Napoli team news

Milan
Pierre Kalulu is injured.

Napoli
Top scorer Victor Osimhen is set to miss out. Fellow striker Giovanni Simeone is also missing.

Milan v Napoli predictions

When a wise owl like Fabio Capello says the presence or otherwise of Napoli star Victor Osimhen will pretty much determine the outcome at San Siro, then that is an injury bulletin which punters have stayed right on top of.

Indeed, it's not just Capello insisting the balance of power in this tie rests squarely at the feet of one man, who tops the Serie A scoring charts and also has four goals in the Champions League.

Given that Milan hammered an Osimhen-less Napoli 4-0 at the Diego Armando Maradona just ten days ago, you can understand why thousands of fans and backers of the Partenopei are so uneasy.

Napoli are no one-man team, far from it. But the absence of Osimhen would seriously level the playing field, especially as one of the African ace's deputies, Giovanni Simeone, is crocked while Giacomo Raspadori trained on his own over the weekend which conspiracy theorists are naturally making much of.

Simon Kjaer, Milan's ageless but ageing centre-back, may well be the happiest man at the San Siro if Napoli come at him at half-throttle, and there is no doubt the hosts have some sort of a chance of avoiding defeat.

Both Milan's matches with Tottenham in the last round were excruciatingly tight, before the Italians progressed 1-0 on aggregate.

In normal circumstances Milan are not quite at Napoli's level, but circumstances probably won't be normal and the draw makes a lot of appeal.

Certainly Luciano Spalletti won't be unhappy taking a draw back to Naples, where his team have won 14 of their last 16 league and European assignments.

Napoli have been superb this season, at home and abroad, but a couple of recent home losses stopped them in their tracks and Friday's 2-1 win at Lecce was scratchy to say the least.

They were far too strong for Eintracht Frankfurt in the previous round but Stefano Pioli won't be anywhere near as open as the Germans were.

He rested five of his stars for Friday's 0-0 draw with Empoli, the latest in a string of tight matches which makes the 4-0 romp at Napoli look a complete fluke.

They have lost just two of their last ten and have recovered from an awful January. They look a lot better than in the group stage as well.

An attack led by Olivier Giroud will have limitations but this is all about staying in the tie and Milan are worth backing to do that.

Key stat

Milan have conceded one goal in their last five home fixtures

Probable teams

Milan (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan; Davide Calabria, Simon Kjaer, Fikayo Tomori, Theo Hernandez; Rade Krunic, Sandro Tonali; Brahim Diaz, Ismael Bennacer, Rafael Leao; Olivier Giroud.
Subs: Malick Thiaw, Fode Ballo, Alessandro Florenzi, Charles De Ketelaere, Alexis Saelemaekers, Tommaso Pobega, Ante Rebic, Divock Origi, Junior Messias

Napoli (4-3-3): Alex Meret; Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Amir Rrahmani, Kim Min-Jae, Mathias Olivera; Andre-Frank Anguissa, Stanislav Lobotka, Piotr Zielinski; Hirving Lozano, Giacomo Raspadori, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
Subs: Mario Rui, Juan Jesus, Bartosz Bereszynski, Leo Ostigard, Tanguy Ndombele, Matteo Politano, Victor Osimhen, Eljif Elmas, Alessio Zerbin