Manchester City v Chelsea predictions: Strength in depth gives Citizens the edge

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Manchester City v Chelsea in the Champions League final on Saturday.

Where to watch

BT Sport 1, 8pm Saturday

Best bets

Manchester City to win & under 3.5 goals
3pts 11-8 BoyleSports

Phil Foden to score first
1pt 13-2 bet365

Team news

Manchester City
Ilkay Gundogan has been passed fit and City have no other injury concerns. The departing Sergio Aguero is likely to start on the bench.

Chelsea
Goalkeeper Edouard Mendy and midfielder N'Golo Kante are slight doubts for the Blues.

Match preview

Thomas Tuchel's Paris St-Germain came up just short in last season's Champions League final against Bayern Munich and his Chelsea side could be set for a similar fate against Manchester City in Porto.

Underdogs PSG restricted rampant Bayern to a 1-0 victory in August 2020 and City, hot favourites to claim their first Champions League title, cannot expect an easy ride against Tuchel's Blues.

Chelsea have already beaten Pep Guardiola's Premier League champions twice in 2021, ending the Citizens' hopes of winning the quadruple with a 1-0 victory in the FA Cup semi-final before scoring an injury-time goal in this month's 2-1 league win at the Etihad Stadium.

City backers should not be too concerned by those defeats, however, as Guardiola made eight changes to his starting 11 for the cup semi and lost Kevin De Bruyne to injury shortly after half-time.

And the Citizens blew a great chance to go 2-0 up in the league meeting as Sergio Aguero's Panenka penalty was easily saved by Edouard Mendy before Chelsea staged their late comeback.

City could hardly have dreamed of a smoother build-up to their first Champions League final, wrapping up the Premier League with three games to spare and signing off their domestic campaign with a 5-0 rout of Everton last Sunday.

While Aguero marked his final home appearance for the club with his 183rd and 184th Premier League goals, Chelsea were losing 2-1 at Aston Villa, squeezing into the top four thanks only to Leicester's late collapse against Tottenham.

Both finalists' squads are in remarkably good shape considering the rigours of the season and City could name one of the strongest benches in football history with Aguero, Gabriel Jesus, Raheem Sterling, Aymeric Laporte, Ferran Torres and Rodri struggling to make the starting 11.

Chelsea's defence was outstanding in their last-16 and quarter-final wins over Atletico Madrid and Porto while they produced a terrific all-round display to see off Real Madrid in the semis.

However, City have looked just as assured during their run to the final, conceding only one goal in six group games before a 4-0 aggregate win over Borussia Monchengladbach in the last 16.

They beat a dangerous Borussia Dortmund side in the quarter-finals and swatted aside last season's runners-up PSG 4-1 on aggregate in the semis with Riyad Mahrez scoring three times over the two legs.

All six of their knockout-stage wins have featured under 3.5 goals, as did four of their five group victories, and that looks a solid way to enhance City's odds of winning in 90 minutes.

Mahrez and De Bruyne, who has scored three crucial goals in the knockout stages, should be joined in a fluid front three by Phil Foden, who looks a tempting price to score first in a tight contest.

Foden could collect the ninth major trophy of his career in Porto, just a day after his 21st birthday, and the brilliant England forward is also favourite to be named Young Player of the Tournament at Euro 2020.

He scored in both legs of the quarter-final against BVB, found the net in City's Premier League win at Chelsea in January, and ended the league season with three goals in his last four games.

Foden has been a consistent menace in Europe this season, racking up 30 shots at goal in 11 starts including six in the semi-final tie against PSG, and Chelsea may struggle to keep him quiet on the biggest stage.

Key stat

Manchester City to win and under 3.5 goals has been a winning bet in 12 of their last 15 Champions League matches.

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