Man City v Atletico Madrid predictions: Simeone's savvy side to stand up to City

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Manchester City v Atletico Madrid in the Champions League quarter-final first leg on Tuesday.

Where to watch

BT Sport 2, 8pm Tuesday

Best bet

Atletico Madrid +1 Asian handicap
1pt 6-4 bet365

Team news

Man City
Ruben Dias is sidelined with a thigh injury, while Kyle Walker is suspended.

Atletico Madrid
Yannick Carrasco is suspended, while centre-back Jose Gimenez and midfielder Hector Herrera are injured.

Match preview

Atletico Madrid return to Manchester weeks after ending United's Champions League dream and Diego Simeone's in-form side are more than capable of putting a spoke in City's ambitions as well.

Simeone is savvy enough to know he'll be facing a very different Manchester-based outfit from the one he saw off in the round of 16.

City go into the first leg of this quarter-final as Premier League leaders, Champions League favourites and one of the best sides in world football – so on a completely different level to United.

But Atletico, the absolute personification of the sum being greater than the parts, will endeavour to produce yet another heroic team effort and we know they've got the tools to do it, because they've done it so many times before.

Atletico's packed defence are sure to provide a formidable obstacle to Kevin de Bruyne, Phil Foden and pals, and this looks like a match which could well end up close. Certainly close enough to suggest the visitors are the bet with a one-goal start on the Asian handicap, whereby backers are paid out if Atletico win or draw and stakes are returned if they lose by one goal.

The blueprint is pretty obvious. City will boss possession, chances and corners but know that the Atletico wall usually takes a fair bit of guile to blow down.

The Spaniards are without a key midfield anchorman Hector Herrera and gnarled centre-back Jose Gimenez,but Felipe will slot in seamlessly in defence and Simeone can reshuffle his midfield with Koke dropping deeper.

Atletico are so well drilled that they will still be solid and of course a threat on the break with Joao Felix in rich scoring form with seven goals in his last eight matches.

The Madrid powers haven't conceded more than one goal in any of their last nine matches and are currently on an eight-game unbeaten run. They have won six in a row and each of their last four on the road, probably most notably at Old Trafford in the previous round where Renan Lodi scored the only goal of the game.

They have also won at Milan and Porto in this year's competition during a group stage campaign which was littered with errors, including home and away losses to Liverpool.

However, both games were tight – 3-2 at the Metropolitano and 2-0 at Anfield – and Atletico had a man sent off relatively early in both matches.

City, appearing in a fifth successive quarter-final, are seeking to go one better than last season when they were pipped by Chelsea in the final and their form is pretty impressive.

That said, Southampton, Tottenham and Crystal Palace have all managed to put the brakes on them and while they are unbeaten at home in Europe in over three years, there have been more than enough tight games – Shakhtar, Dortmund, PSG and others – to confirm they can be frustrated.

They just look too short as a 90-minute option with Atletico improving especially as they always seem to find one team too good in this competition.

Key stat

Atletico have scored the opening goal in each of their last eight games

Inside info

Manchester City

Penalty taker Riyad Mahrez/Raheem Sterling
Free-kick wizard Kevin De Bruyne/RiyadMahrez
Set-piece aerial threat John Stones
Card magnet Aymeric Laporte

Atletico Madrid

Penalty taker Luis Suarez/Joao Felix
Free-kick wizard Koke/Joao Felix
Set-piece aerial threat Felipe/Stefan Savic
Card magnet Stefan Savic/Geoffrey Kondogbia

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