Liverpool v Villarreal predictions: Test of patience on the cards for wary Reds

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Liverpool v Villarreal in the Champions League on Wednesday.

Where to watch

BT Sport 2, 8pm Wednesday

Best bet

Under 2.5 goals
1pt 13-10 bet365

Team news

Liverpool
Roberto Firmino (foot) missed out against Everton but hopes to be in contention.

Villarreal
Gerard Moreno (hamstring) is a major doubt and Antonio Moreno (knee) is unavailable.

Match preview

Liverpool's quest for the quad has been heavily influenced by their free-scoring nature, but they were frustrated for the opening hour of Sunday's 2-0 success over Everton and may have to show patience in their Champions League semi-final first leg against Villarreal which could boil down to a tactical, low-scoring affair.

Jurgen Klopp instructs his players to get after opponents from the first whistle and there have been plenty of examples of Liverpool establishing dominant half-time leads, including the recent FA Cup semi-final against Manchester City when Liverpool raced 3-0 ahead by the break.

However, they were made to work hard by the Toffees and a similar scenario could evolve against Villarreal, who demonstrated immense powers of resistance over the course of their Champions League quarter-final against Bayern Munich, which they won 2-1 on aggregate.

The Yellow Submarines rode their luck at times and achieved a 1-1 second-leg draw at the Allianz Arena despite losing the shot count 23 to four.

However, the majority of Bayern’s goal attempts were hopeful and there was always a counter-attacking threat from Villarreal, who struck the decisive blow in the 88th minute through substitute Samuel Chukwueze.

There were similarities to the second leg of Villarreal’s last-16 tie at Juventus, where they soaked up lots of pressure before running out 3-0 winners with three goals in the final 20 minutes.

Villarreal’s ability to pull off such impressive results against better resourced clubs was also showcased in last season’s Europa League, when they overcame semi-final opponents Arsenal and finalists Manchester United to get their hands on the trophy.

It is hard to look past head coach Unai Emery as the key to Villarreal’s success.

Emery showed himself to be an expert in knockout competitions at Sevilla where he landed Europa League titles in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and, while his 18-month spell at Arsenal was deemed a failure, he did lead the Gunners to the 2019 Europa League final.

Steering Villarreal to the Champions League semi-finals is arguably his finest achievement and he has done it with a largely unheralded group which includes Tottenham loanee Giovani Lo Celso, former Spurs defenders Juan Foyth and Serge Aurier, and three more players – ex-Watford duo Etienne Capoue and Pervis Estupinan and former Bournemouth forward Danjuma – snapped up from clubs in the English Championship.

Villarreal’s recruitment has been outstanding and, while they could be without injured forward Gerard Moreno – responsible for 13 goals and six assists in 26 appearances this season – they will have the full respect of Liverpool, who are anxious to avoid following in the footsteps of Juventus and Bayern.

Klopp will want a lead before next Tuesday’s tough trip to El Madrigal, but he will also be acutely aware of the counter-attacking threat of the opponent, including pacy attackers Danjuma and Chukwueze, who got the goals against Bayern.

Liverpool’s pursuit of an advantage will be relentless but it is unlikely to be reckless and it may be the case that Klopp is happy to settle for a low-scoring success.

Key stat

Five of Villarreal's last seven Champions League matches have featured fewer than three goals

Inside info

Liverpool

Penalty taker Mohamed Salah
Free-kick wizard Trent Alexander-Arnold
Set-piece aerial threat Virgil van Dijk
Card magnet Fabinho

Villarreal

Penalty taker Arnaut Danjuma
Free-kick wizard Dani Parejo
Set-piece aerial threat Pau Torres
Card magnet Etienne Capoue

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