Kevin Pullein: Champions League final analysis from the Soccer Boffin

Sir Alex Ferguson, who should know, said that success in the Champions League tends to go in cycles. One country dominates for a while, then another.

Manchester City and Chelsea being in the Champions League final this year may increase the chance of them or other English teams reaching subsequent finals.

Let us go back over the whole history of the Champions League and European Cup. This will be the 66th final.

There were English finalists in nine of the 11 years between 1975 and 1985, in seven of the eight years between 2005 and 2012 and in three of the four years between 2018 and now. There were only two others scattered across the remaining 43 years.

For other countries, too, success has come in clusters.

The competitions started with a period of Spanish domination. There was a Spanish finalist in each of the first seven years. Later there were Spanish finalists in four of the five years between 1998 and 2002 and in all five years between 2014 and 2018.

There were Italian finalists in five of the seven years between 1963 and 1969, in every year between 1983 and 1985 and in nine of the ten years between 1989 and 1998.

There were German finalists in all four years between 1974 and 1977, in three of the four years between 1980 and 1983, in four of the six years between 1997 and 2002 and in three of the four years between 2010 and 2013.

Those countries have been the most successful in the Champions League and European Cup.

There have been finalists from Italy in 27 years, from Spain in 26 years, from England in 21 years and from Germany in 17 years. Those countries were up to three times as likely to be represented in a final if they had been represented in the previous year than if they had not.

Card count is unlikely to be any higher in all-English final

Antonio Mateu Lahoz from Spain will referee the Champions League final. He sent off Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola during a 2018 quarter-final second leg against Liverpool. Guardiola has said he could not care less who referees the final. He may be right not to.

There is one sense in which same-country finals, perhaps surprisingly, have been no different from others. They have not featured any more bookings.

There were two previous all-English finals, three all-Spanish, one all-German and one all-Italian. In bookings markets where each yellow counts for ten points and each red for 25, the average make-up was 40 points. Across the other 21 Champions League finals the average make up was 43 points.

Final goals have doubled in the Champions League era

There was a time when European Cup finals yielded very few goals. Champions League finals have been higher scoring. As the trend has changed before it can change again, but this is what has happened, excluding any extra time.

Between 1956 and 1969 European Cup finals averaged 4.2 goals. Between 1970 and 1992 they averaged just 1.3 goals. In Champions League finals that figure has doubled - since 1993 the goals per game average is 2.6.

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