Champions League top scorer predictions & odds for the Golden Boot

Best bets and analysis for the Golden Boot winner in this season's Champions League.

Best bets

Romelu Lukaku to win Golden Boot
2pts each-way 10-1 Hills

Karim Benzema to win Golden Boot
2pts each-way 16-1 Betfred

Preview

Recent history tells us that when considering a top goalscorer bet in the Champions League it pays to look at players who ply their trade for teams drawn in softer sections of the draw.

In five of the last six campaigns, the tournament's top scorer has bagged at least half of their goals in the group stage with last term's winner Erling Haaland netting six of his ten goals before the knockout phase began.

But it is also important to target players in teams who can go deep in the tournament and with both of these criteria considered, Romelu Lukaku looks a great bet.

The Belgian rejoined Champions League holders Chelsea from Inter for £97.5 million earlier this summer after turning his career around in Italy.

Lukaku scored 47 goals in 72 league appearances in his two seasons in Serie A and even though Inter finished bottom of their section in the 2020-21 Champions League, he still netted four goals in the competition.

He is already off the mark since returning to the Premier League, netting three in three appearances, and could cause havoc in a group made up of a Juventus team low on confidence and unconvincing Malmo and Zenit sides.

Lukaku should also take heart from the fact he plays for a club who went all the way last season and, barring any shocks, Thomas Tuchel's men should give defending their title a serious crack.

He found the net four times for Belgium at Euro 2020 over the summer and he is also well positioned to be star of the show at Stamford Bridge with Timo Werner unlikely to knock him challenge him for the role as Chelsea's centre-forward.

In the likes of Mason Mount, Kai Havertz and Christian Pulisic, Lukaku has plenty of creativity around him and few players make more appeal to top the charts in Europe's elite club competition.

Haaland heads the market and while a group containing Sporting, Ajax and Besiktas should give him a decent opportunity of making another flying start, the loss of Jadon Sancho makes Borussia Dortmund a much weaker side and they could struggle in the latter stages of the tournament.

Robert Lewandowski is invariably towards the head of the goalscorer standings but he is now 33 and better value probably lies elsewhere.

Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar are sure to share the goals around at Paris Saint-Germain, so the biggest threat to Lukaku could come from Karim Benzema at Real Madrid.

No other player came close to Benzema in the Madrid goalscoring charts last season with the Frenchman bagging 30 goals in 46 matches in all competitions. Midfield pair Marco Asensio and Casemiro were next in the charts with seven each.

Six of Benzema's strikes last season came in the Champions League as Real Madrid carved out a run to the semi-finals, losing to champions Chelsea, and under veteran boss Carlo Ancelotti they should be fancied to progress again.

In Ancelotti's last season as Real boss - the 2014-15 campaign - Benzema impressed with six goals in nine Champions League appearances and that was despite their game being focused around a Cristiano Ronaldo at the peak of his powers.

But with Real's proposed move for PSG's Mbappe falling through on deadline day, Benzema now faces minimal competition through the middle at the Bernabeu and should start nearly all their Champions League outings.

His recall to the France national team for this year's European Championship after a six-year exile emphasises that he remains an in-demand forward with plenty still to offer.

And with Gareth Bale, Vinicius Junior and Eden Hazard either side of him, he should get opportunities in Group D, which features a deflated Inter side, Ukraine's Shakhtar Donetsk and Moldovan minnows Sheriff Tiraspol.

At a double-figure odds, the four-time Champions League winner Benzema should give punters a run for their money.

The competition's all-time leading scorer Ronaldo will naturally attract interest following his return to Manchester United.

But he was not even top scorer in the Champions League for Juventus last season - that honour went to Alvaro Morata - and Ronaldo last scooped this accolade in 2018.

Edinson Cavani remains at Old Trafford and will have something to say if Ronaldo is leading the line for every match in all competitions and Villarreal and Atalanta will not be pushovers in Group F.

Instead punters should focus their attention on players like Lukaku and Benzema who will likely be heavily relied upon for goals and can make a good start to their pursuit of the Golden Boot in the group phase.

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