Brentford v Swansea predictions: Bees can realise Premier League dream

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Brentford v Swansea City in the Championship playoff final on Saturday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event & Football, 3pm, Saturday

Best bet

Brentford and over 2.5 goals
1pt 11-4 bet365

Team news

Brentford
Christian Norgaard is a doubts after missing the second leg of the semi-final with injury and Rico Henry is out. Josh Dasilva and Shandon Baptiste are long-term absentees.

Swansea
Wayne Routledge has joined Jordan Morris on the sidelines. Oli Cooper and Brandon Cooper are also crocked.

Match preview

Brentford are the most unsuccessful team in EFL playoff history having failed to come through the post-season knockout on nine occasions. But they looked a team on a mission when defeating Bournemouth 3-1 last weekend and can finish the job with a high-scoring success over Swansea in the Championship final at Wembley.

Thomas Frank's side return to the national stadium less than ten months after their heart-breaking extra-time 2-1 loss to Fulham in the 2019-20 playoff final but their experience of the occasion may stand them in good stead.

Former Bees boss Dean Smith is sure to be cheering on his old club and could tell them a thing or two about channelling the negative emotions of a squad scarred by a such a momentous defeat.

Smith switched from Brentford to Aston Villa in October 2018 - inheriting a squad who were still reeling from a 1-0 playoff final defeat to Fulham – and 12 months later he lead them to promotion with a 2-1 Wembley success over Derby.

Brentford have had to show mental strength at different points throughout the campaign.

Their playoff final loss was compounded by the departure of Ollie Watkins and Said Benrahma but they took the inspired decision to snap up centre-forward Ivan Toney from Peterborough and went on to register a second successive third-place finish.

There were moments when automatic promotion appeared to be in their grasp but suggestions of mental weakness are totally unfair for a team which finished on 87 points – four more than second-placed West Brom had amassed the season before.

Frank has dealt with injuries to key players along the way with influential midfielder Josh Dasilva sidelined since February and Danish playmaker Christian Norgaard suffering an injury in the build-up to last Saturday's second leg against Bournemouth.

However, the Brentford manager was typically bold with his selection and substitutions against the Cherries and was rewarded with a well-deserved 3-2 aggregate success.

While Brentford favour an attacking strategy, Swansea have relied a lot more on keeping clean sheets and hurting teams on the counter-attack.

Chelsea loanee Marc Guehi has stood out as one of the best central defenders in the division and the Swans shipped just 39 league goals – the lowest among teams outside the top two.

However, Swansea stuttered towards the end of the season – taking 11 points from their final 11 games – and manager Steve Cooper felt the need for a change of shape by swapping his tried-and-trusted back three for a 4-3-3 formation.

The biggest beneficiary of the switch has been Jamal Lowe, who netted five goals in the final seven league games.

And Brentford must also keep a close eye on Swans top-scorer Andre Ayew, who overcame some end-of-season injury niggles to score a superb goal in the 1-0 semi-final, first leg success at Barnsley.

However, the shape change appears to have left Swansea less secure in defence – they have kept one clean sheet in their last seven games – and they may struggle to cope with the free-flowing Bees, who can secure a top flight return for the first time since 1947.

Key stat

Swansea have kept just one clean sheet in their last seven matches.

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