Back leaders Leeds to hurt hosts after interval

Sky Bet Championship
Sky Sports Football & Main Event, 3pm Tuesday

Leeds suffered a home defeat to Hull in their final game of 2018 but they kick off the new year on top of the Sky Bet Championship and with every reason to be optimistic about a return to the top flight.

The Yorkshire club's fans certainly shouldn't panic after their 2-0 defeat to the Tigers, who had just 28 per cent of possession and lost the shot count 22-9.

Before that smash-and-grab raid on Elland Road, Leeds had won seven league games in a row and they may be travelling to Nottingham Forest at a good time.

Both teams have been involved in late drama over Christmas with Leeds coming from 2-0 down to win 3-2 at Aston Villa and scoring two injury-time goals to beat Blackburn by the same scoreline.

Forest, by contrast, were on the wrong end of a spectacular Norwich comeback last week, blowing a 3-0 lead in the last 13 minutes at Carrow Road to draw 3-3 with Leeds’s closest pursuers at the top of the table.

They followed up with a 1-0 defeat at struggling Millwall in which they had 65 per cent of the ball but failed to ease the pressure on manager Aitor Karanka.

The former Middlesbrough boss has seen his side take just two points from their last five Championship matches and, worryingly, Forest have failed to score in four of those games.

The return of top goalscorer Lewis Grabban, a sub at Millwall, should offer them more of a cutting edge but Leeds, stung by that rare setback against Hull last time out, are dangerous visitors.

• Sky Bet Championship standings

Despite their lofty position in the table, however, Bielsa’s men have struggled to take control of games early on and it may be worth backing the draw-Leeds double result.

The leaders have been ahead at the break in only six of their 25 matches this season, scoring 69 per cent of their goals after the interval, while two-thirds of Forest’s goals have come in the second half.

The Tricky Trees have scored just 13 times in 12 home matches and are likely to show Leeds plenty of respect so the 0-0 half-time correct score is also worth considering at 15-8.

Recommendation
Draw-Leeds double result
1pt 19-4 Betway

Bet on this game at Soccerbase.com

Team news
Nottingham Forest
Top goalscorer Lewis Grabban should return to the starting line-up after coming off the bench at Millwall. Tobias Figueiredo is fit again.

Leeds
Lewis Baker and Tyler Roberts are options if Marcelo Bielsa wants to freshen up the 11 who started the defeat to Hull.

Key stat
Leeds have scored 69 per cent of their league goals this season – 29 out of 42 – in the second half.

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