Aston Villa fancied to claim Second City derby delight

Sky Bet Championship
Sky Sports Football, midday Sunday

Birmingham have not banked three points from a second city derby since 2005 and their wretched record against Aston Villa - no wins in 12 league games - looks set to be extended by a defeat at Villa Park.

The international break probably came at a bad time for Villa, who kicked off November with a superb 3-0 victory at Derby.

All of their goals at Derby came in the final 20 minutes but it was a well-deserved win for Villa, who dominated and won the shot count 21-11.

The win lifted above Birmingham on goal difference but market expectations of the clubs are very different.

Villa consider themselves to be under-performing and improvement is expected over the final 29 games with Dean Smith's side 5-1 to win promotion.

There is less pressure on Birmingham, who were 20-1 to go up and 40-1 to be relegated before the weekend matches.

A season of consolidation would probably be seen as a positive step for the Blues, who were under a transfer embargo in the summer.

Manager Garry Monk operates with one of the smaller squads in the division and will be mindful of how vulnerable his team are to injuries and suspensions.

However, Birmingham's squad have stayed largely fit and healthy and fears over the condition of wingers Jota and Jacques Maghoma have been allayed with both returning to training this week.

Monk has to make one enforced change with midfielder Gary Gardner unable to face his parent club, and it could be a key one because the 26-year-old's energetic performances have been a key factor in the solid start to the season.

Gardner's older brother Craig is set to come into the side but he has been short of matches, featuring just three times this season, and could struggle to adjust to the pace of an intense derby game.

Villa are likely to gain the upper hand in midfield and that should give them the platform to go on and win.

Their offensive play has become more fluent in the short time Smith has been in charge with attacking midfielder Jack Grealish pulling the strings and Albert Adomah, Jonathan Kodjia and Tammy Abraham offering pace, power and penetration.

It is a front four with the potential to do a lot of damage in the second tier – just ask Derby – and it should give them a decisive advantage over their local rivals.

Recommendation
Aston Villa
1pt 17-20 bet365, Betfred

Bet on this match at Soccerbase.com

Team news
Aston Villa
Neil Taylor has shaken off a minor injury and James Chester (knee) and John McGinn (calf) will be given every chance to prove their fitness. Birkir Bjarnason (groin) is also a doubt.

Birmingham
Jacques Maghoma (ankle) and Jota (hip) are expected to be available but Gary Gardner is ineligible to face his parent club and David Davis and Isaac Vassell are still sidelined.

Key stat
Birmingham have not won any of their last 12 league games against Aston Villa.

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