Expert Premier League predictions from Mark Langdon: Red Devils could cut loose

It was great to have elite European football back this week and there were no signs that ditching the away-goal rule had a negative impact on road teams trying to play for wins.

The tension of the away-goal rule always gave a different dynamic to European football, but ultimately it was unfair that if the first leg of a tie finished 3-2 to one team and then the other won 2-1 in the return it would somehow decide which outfit progressed.

There will be more games which go to extra-time and penalties as a consequence but the early signs are that visiting teams have not suddenly decided to retreat with ten men behind the ball, unless you are Real Madrid.

The Spanish side were outplayed in the 1-0 loss to PSG with Kylian Mbappe scoring a wonderful late winner but Real Madrid have scored only twice in their last five away matches in the knockout phase of the Champions League, so there was clearly an issue before the rule change.

Braga were the only team in the Europa League not to score on their travels and overall away teams scored 31 goals in 20 fixtures across the three European competitions, an average of 1.55.

And one final thought on this. I have never watched a Football League playoff tie and thought: "You know what this needs to liven it up? The away-goal rule."

It's early days but hopefully the fun will remain.

The fun has definitely stopped for Spanish champions Atletico Madrid, who could miss out on the Champions League next season and are in no better shape than last-16 opponents Manchester United before Wednesday's first leg.

Many are asking what has gone wrong and one of the answers is the horrendous form of Jan Oblak, a goalkeeper who for so long was seen as one of the best, if not the best, in the world.

Atletico have conceded 34 goals this season and yet according to fbref.com their expected goals-against is just 20.9, while Oblak's save percentage of 47.3 is the second-worst in Europe's top-five leagues, behind only Greuther Furth goalkeeper Marius Funk's 46.2.

Aaron Ramsdale is second-best on that list (behind Jose Sa of Wolves) at 81.9 per cent and hopefully the Arsenal keeper can maintain his form when the Gunners host Brentford.

Back Arsenal to win in a game featuring under 3.5 goals, a bet that has copped when Brentford have been to Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham - the Bees are yet to visit Chelsea or United.

Arsenal have five clean sheets in their last seven league games but have scored only twice in six matches this year.

Sa's Wolves looked a good bet to beat Leicester but the price has disappeared. There is a bet worth having in the other Sunday game though - take Manchester United to score at least twice at Leeds.

The Yorkshire hosts have conceded at least twice in every league game against the top six and also against Spurs, who could be in the top six once their games in hand are played.

Only Norwich have a worse xG-against figure than Leeds and only the Canaries have allowed more shots on target. The Red Devils are third-worst on that particular statistic which is why over 1.5 away goals is preferred to backing the win.

Ralf Rangnick's team have had 83 shots in their last four matches and should cut loose soon enough.

Best bets

Arsenal to win & under 3.5 goals 3pm Saturday
1pt 21-20 general

Over Man Utd 1.5 goals 2pm Sunday
1pt 7-10 general

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