Expert Champions League predictions for the knockout phase from Mark Langdon

The Champions League last-16 draw will be made on Monday and now looks a good time to assess the trophy candidates after what was a fun group stage which ended with Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund as the two biggest casualties.

Manchester City 3-1

The best team in the competition and deservedly favourites but their defeat in Paris proves City are not as far ahead of the other powerhouses once we get to the randomness of the knockout phase.

Bayern Munich 4-1

Sizzling in the final third but Dayot Upamecano is a disaster waiting to happen at the back. One clean sheet against top-half Bundesliga opponents this season and a 5-0 defeat to Gladbach in the German Cup are reasons for concern.

Liverpool 5-1

The Reds came through a difficult enough group with maximum points and are only one point behind City in the Premier League with a nine-goal superior goal difference. They also have a better expected-goal difference and are the pick at the top of the betting.

PSG 7-1

Mauricio Pochettino's side lack balance and motivation with a quite shocking team spirit. You can never say never about a team with Messi, Neymar and Mbappe as the front three but PSG need to improve plenty.

Chelsea 10-1

Finishing second has made the holders vulnerable in the draw and recent performances and results have dipped. Thomas Tuchel's team, however, look made for the knockouts, are proven over course-and-distance and only really need to avoid Bayern in the last 16.

Manchester Utd 14-1

It shouldn't be difficult for Ralf Rangnick to make United better given the resources available but they are bottom-half on xG difference in the Premier League and were 14th of 32 teams on the same metric in the Champions League group stage.

Real Madrid 16-1

The most interesting of the teams outside the obvious ones. They are eight points clear in La Liga and Vinicius is quickly becoming a star. Probably not good enough but could go deeper than the odds suggest.

Ajax 16-1

Erik ten Hag looks a superb coach and Ajax were so much fun to watch in the group stage. Only Bayern had a better xG difference and this young team could be better than the 2019 version who reached the semis, although they will need to be as this is a strong field.

Atletico 33-1

They played well in defeat against Liverpool at home but this season has mainly been a big disappointment.

Juventus 33-1

Somehow topped Chelsea's group but they are 11 points off the pace in Serie A.

Inter 50-1

Rarely been at their best in the Champions League over a long period of time and were put in their place by Real Madrid in the group.

Lille 150-1

French sides have done well in Europe this term but unlikely to get past the last 16.

Villarreal 150-1

Probably better than 150-1 suggests but far-fetched to suggest they will go all the way.

Benfica 200-1

Finishing second ahead of Barca is nothing to crow about these days.

Salzburg 250-1

Forward Karim Adeyemi is rumoured to be off to Dortmund and looks like he is ready for the step up.

Sporting 500-1

The Portuguese champions have a potentially top coach in Ruben Amorim and they are possibly better than Benfica despite what the odds claim, but the last 16 is likely to be too hot.

Ligue 1 predictions

Lille are above Lyon in Ligue 1 this season and the underlying data also suggests the French champions are better than Sunday's visitors.

They have a better xG difference of 0.4 which is not insignificant and are value draw no bet at 8-11.

Best bet

Lille draw no bet v Lyon Sunday 12pm
1pt 8-11 general

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