William Hill World Darts Championship final betting preview, free tips, analysis

Free darts tips, bets and analysis for Wednesday's William Hill World Darts Championship final between Michael van Gerwen and Peter Wright.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Darts & Main Event, 7pm Wednesday

Best bets

Peter Wright +2.5 sets
3pts Evens Betfair, Paddy Power
Back this tip with Paddy Power

Michael van Gerwen under 100.5 average
2pts 5-6 Hills

Stats that matter

Head-to-heads: Van Gerwen 59, Wright 17, draws 2

MvG win %: 77.6

All finals head-to-heads: Van Gerwen 16, Wright 2

MvG win %: 88.9

All major TV finals head-to-heads: Van Gerwen 10, Wright 0

MvG win %: 100

Match preview

Peter Wright is one game away from realising his dream of being crowned world champion for the first time, but the Scot knows he will have to conquer any number of demons to pull it off.

Snakebite has been the player of the tournament at the William Hill World Championship, banging in more 180s than anyone else, more ton-plus checkouts, and doing the layers a massive favour by ending the hopes of second-favourite Gerwyn Price in a thoroughly dominant semi-final.

But standing between Wright and the Sid Waddell Trophy is, inevitably, Michael van Gerwen - not just the best player in the world but a man who boasts an extraordinary stranglehold over his decorative opponent.

The statistics are simply breathtaking and have naturally prompted Van Gerwen to claim that Wright bottles it whenever they meet. And Wright, a stats disciple, is well aware of those damning numbers.

The two men have met 78 times, Van Gerwen has won 59 of those encounters. They’ve clashed 18 times in finals, Van Gerwen has won 16 of them. And in major TV finals the disparity is even more glaring, 10-0 to Mighty Mike.

The last time they met – in the Champions League final in October – Wright missed three match darts to beat the Green Machine. He did something similar in the Premier League final in 2017.

“Every time he plays me, he blows it up or misses darts at doubles,” bragged Van Gerwen following his 6-3 win against Nathan Aspinall in the semis. “He’s more worried about me that I am about him.”

This is the second time these darting titans have met in the world final. The first time was in 2014 when Van Gerwen triumphed 7-4. Only two of those 11 sets went to a fifth and deciding leg. Van Gerwen won them both.

During this year’s tournament Wright has hardly put a foot wrong after surviving a second-round scare against Noel Malicdem but when he has been put under pressure, he is not so assured. He has featured in 16 sets which have gone to a final leg and failed to win eight of them. Van Gerwen, in contrast, has been involved in 13 last-leg deciders and lost only three of them.

So punters are rightly entitled to ask how Wright will cope under the utmost pressure given their history.

Conversely, it’s all well and good Van Gerwen winning the mind games, but is he playing well enough to be able to justify his arrogant disregard for Wright’s mental strength? This could be a classic, tight final and therefore Wright is arguably the better value of the two. He’s certainly worth backing at evens on the handicap with a start of 2.5 sets.

Maximums are in at around 26.5, a figure cleared in four of the last five finals. Snakebite, who has banged in 30 more maximums than his opponent, is around 4-7 to win the 180s match bet.

The pressure is on both men – whatever the reigning champ says – and Van Gerwen to average under 100.5 is another shout. He’s had one exceptional average in a 4-0 romp against Stephen Bunting but he has been inconsistent throughout and over a long match it’s hard to see him producing stellar numbers.

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