Who wins the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby based on previous trends?

The jumps season is kicking back into gear and Saturday's Charlie Hall Chase (3.35) should provide the first heavyweight contest of the season. Bravemansgame looks set to take on Ahoy Senor at Wetherby – but who is the likeliest winner of the Grade 2 contest based on previous trends?

Ratings

There are some illustrious names on the roll of honour for this race and a number of fans' favourites have been successful in the last ten years, including Silvianaco Conti, Cue Card and Bristol De Mai.

The highest Racing Post Rating achieved by a Charlie Hall Chase since 2012 winner came two years ago when the brilliant but fragile Cyrname ran to 173.

He was pulled up in last year's race won by Fusil Raffles, who posted an RPR of 145 – comfortably the lowest of the last decade – while Bristol De Mai received an RPR of 172 for his victory in 2017.

The average RPR posted by a Charlie Hall Chase winner since 2012 is 164.

Cyrname: took the 2020 Charlie Hall Chase under Harry CobdenCredit: Dan Abraham

Age

Silvianaco Conti, Harry Topper, Bristol De Mai and Fusil Raffles have all won the race as six-year-olds in the last decade. Menorah, Cue Card, Definitly Red and Ballyoptic won as nine-year-olds.

The average age of a Charlie Hall Chase winner in the last ten years is 7.5, which favours the top two in the market in this year's race as both Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor are both seven.

Class

This race has produced some very classy winners. Cyrname, for example, went on to post a career-high Racing Post Rating of 181, while the popular Cue Card followed up his 2015 victory with wins in the Betfair Chase and King George.

But what level have previous winners ran to before Charlie Hall Chase success?

Every winner since 2012 had already run in a Grade 1 race, with six of the previous ten winners having also won a Grade 1 (whether over hurdles or fences). Irish Cavalier (2016) is the only winner in the last six years who didn't have a win at Grade 2 level on his CV beforehand.

Odds

Only two favourites have won the Charlie Hall Chase since 2012, Silvianaco Conti in 2012 (11-10) and Cue Card in 2015 (11-4).

However, this isn't a race for big upsets. The 2014 winner Menorah is the biggest-priced winner in the last decade, returning at just 8-1.

Jockey

Jockey bookings don't give us many clues when it comes to picking the winner of the Charlie Hall Chase. Daryl Jacob is the only rider to taste victory more than once since 2012, with last year's victory on Fusil Raffles supplementing Bristol De Mai's success in 2017.

Verdict

It is very hard to split the two at the top of the market and Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor both have the right profile to win on Saturday. They are seven-year-olds, have won Grade 1s over fences and have posted career-high Racing Post Ratings of 165 and 166 respectively.

Is Ahoy Senor the one to take the 2022 Charlie Hall Chase?Credit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Bravemansgame beat Ahoy Senor comfortably at Kempton on Boxing Day last year but Ahoy Senor had his revenge at Aintree in April, as he finished clear of Fury Road and his Cheltenham conqueror L'Homme Presse, with Bravemansgame disappointing as last of the four.

It's a fascinating contest. , who won on his only previous visit to the track, is taken to come out on top for Lucinda Russell.

Charlie Hall Chase (3.35 Saturday, Wetherby)

bet365: 6-5 Bravemansgame, 5-2 Ahoy Senor, 11-2 Eldorado Allen, 10 Dashel Drasher, Secret Investor, 16 Win My Wings, Good Boy Bobby, Sam Brown, 66 Paint The Dream, Some Chaos

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