Who wins the 2022 July Cup at Newmarket based on previous trends?

Saturday's big race is the Darley July Cup (4.25) and we have delved deep into the trends to see if history can help us determine the 2022 winner of this Group 1 prize . . .

4.25 Newmarket: July Cup racecard and betting

Key races

Eight of the last 12 winners had their most recent run at Royal Ascot, with six of those races being either the Diamond Jubilee Stakes or the Commonwealth Cup. That applies to the vast majority of this year's runners, with Platinum Jubilee star Naval Crown and Commonwealth Cup hero Perfect Power prominent in the market.

That leaves a pair of Ascot races unaccounted for and, fascinatingly, two recent winners last contested the St James's Palace Stakes. That statistic is not relevant this year, but it is one to bear in mind for the future.

Ratings

It is not a surprise that higher-rated horses do best in the July Cup. Nine of the last 12 winners were rated 116 or higher and that does not rule out any of the horses prominent in the market.

Creative Force (118), Naval Crown (118) Perfect Power (117) and Artorius (116) all fit the trend.

The lowest-rated winner in the last 12 years was the 110-rated Mayson in 2012 and the horses below that threshold are Double Or Bubble (108) and Blackrod (99).

Distance

With this being a sprint, it is not surprising that 11 of the last 12 winners had at least four previous runs over 6f.

The last three winners of the race arrived at Newmarket after a preparation run over 6f. Dream Ahead, Limato and US Navy Flag all arrived off the back of mile runs, however, so do not be too blinded by the distance statistics.

Class

With seven of the last 12 winners having scored at Group 1 level previously, it takes a very smart horse to take the prize.

All 12 recent winners had at least won a Group 3, so those graduating from handicapsare perhaps best ignored if this statistic is to be trusted implicitly.

Odds

Being prominent in the market has been essential in the last 12 years, with eight of the last 12 winners priced 9-2 or shorter.

Mayson caused a 20-1 shock in 2012 and Oxted powered clear at 12-1 two years ago, but surprises are rare and the market is usually spot on.

Verdict

It might be boring and obvious, but the trends pick is the hot favourite and Commonwealth Cup ace Perfect Power.

He comes into the race after a dominant victory in that key trial, which helps him tick the distance and class trends too. Favourites do extremely well in this contest, which helps him go five from five.

Darley July Cup Stakes (4.25 Newmarket, Saturday)

Sky Bet: 9-4 Perfect Power, 10-3 Artorius, 4 Creative Force, 6 Naval Crown, 9 Flaming Rib, 20 bar

Saturday's best offer

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2022 July Cup offers

• Paddy Power are giving away free bets to new and existing customers, and all you need is an account. Sign up here.
• Sky Bet are offering new customers free bets when they sign up. You can get them, along with money-back specials and extra places, here.
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• Don't have a Coral account? They have an offer for new customers here.
• bet365 have a new customer offer available. Sign up here.
• New William Hill customers can claim free bets here and benefit from their money-back offers here.
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Read more on the July Cup:

Confirmed runners and riders for the 2022 July Cup – plus an early tip

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